Record Q3 Gold Demand, Sticky Inflation, SNAP Benefits Lapse

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors 
October 31st, 2025 

Gold & Silver Cap Record October Despite Choppy Week 

October delivered historic gains for precious metals: gold broke above $4,000 and set an intramonth record, while silver tagged fresh four-decade highs mid-month. Both have pulled back since, but remain up sharply for the month. This week’s give-and-take looks like healthy consolidation after a major run, with gold digesting gains around the $4,000 level.  

The fundamental drivers haven’t changed — rate-cut expectations, geopolitical hedging, and strong investor demand are still in place. Looking ahead, LBMA delegates now see gold near $5,000 within a year. The catch: volatility is rising alongside momentum. Bigger swings mean position sizing matters more than ever. 

What’s fueling those gains? 

World Gold Council: Q3 Global Gold Demand Hits New Record 

The World Gold Council reports Q3 global gold demand climbed 3% year-over-year to a record 1,313 tonnes, driven by bars, coins, and a resurgence in gold-backed ETF inflows. Investors piled in amid tariff uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and plain-old FOMO.  

Central banks kept buying — roughly 220 tonnes in the quarter — while jewelry demand slumped on high prices. What it means for investors: demand is broad-based and less rate-sensitive than it was in 2022–23. That’s exactly the mix that tends to support dips, with buyers stepping in when prices pull back rather than waiting for lower borrowing costs. 

That demand picture gets its next test today with fresh inflation data. 

PCE Inflation: Closer to Target, But Core Stays Sticky 

September PCE came in this morning showing headline inflation at 2.1% year-over-year — down from August’s 2.3% and edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target. The monthly gain of 0.2% matched expectations. But the core reading (excluding food and energy) told a stickier story: 2.7% annually, unchanged from August and slightly above forecast. Services prices drove the increase, while goods prices fell for the fourth time in five months.  

The mixed signals give the Fed room to cut rates gradually, but core inflation sitting nearly a full point above target keeps pressure on policymakers to stay cautious. Translation: lower headline inflation helps gold’s rate-cut narrative, but persistent core keeps the hedge case alive if inflation re-accelerates. 

Speaking of the Fed, not everyone’s on board with recent cuts. 

Dallas Fed’s Logan Opposed This Week’s Rate Cut 

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Friday she voted against Wednesday’s quarter-point rate cut and would find it “difficult” to support another reduction in December. “I did not see a need to cut rates this week,” Logan told a Dallas Fed conference, citing concerns that inflation remains “too high” and consumer spending is running above trend.  

She joined Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid in dissenting on the October 29 decision, which lowered rates to 3.75–4.00%. Chair Powell already threw cold water on a December cut, calling it “not a foregone conclusion.” The divide underscores growing Fed uncertainty about the rate path — and that uncertainty tends to keep safe-haven demand for gold and silver elevated. 

Meanwhile, Washington gridlock is creating its own set of risks. 

Government Shutdown Drags On; SNAP Benefits Set To Lapse Tomorrow 

The federal government shutdown entered its fourth week with no resolution in sight, and the stakes are rising fast. Starting tomorrow (November 1), roughly 42 million Americans won’t receive their monthly SNAP benefits — the first time food stamps have been suspended during a shutdown. The USDA says it needs $8 billion to cover November but has only $6 billion in contingency funds available.  

Meanwhile, federal employees missed their first paycheck last Friday, and both parties remain deadlocked with no bipartisan talks scheduled. Some states are scrambling to patch the gap with emergency funding, but it’s a drop in the bucket. For markets, extended shutdowns mean data blackouts (like the one complicating the Fed’s decision-making), rising economic uncertainty, and potential pain for millions of Americans. 

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