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State Street Predicts 19% Gold Surge to $4,000 Amid Trump Trade Wars

Gold prices continue their remarkable ascent, climbing 2% this week to $3,357 per ounce, with State Street Global Advisors forecasting a potential surge to $4,000 within the next six to nine months. The asset management firm’s Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook suggests even more dramatic gains ahead, with prices possibly testing $5,000 per ounce over the next 12-24 months.

According to Aakash Doshi, State Street’s head of gold strategy, four key factors are propelling gold’s appreciation: market volatility stemming from Trump’s trade policies, concerns over U.S. debt levels, dollar weakness, and sustained central bank gold purchases. The precious metal has gained an impressive 98% since the WHO declared the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, with a 25% rise in 2025 alone.

As economic uncertainty persists—including questions about inflation, the $36.2 trillion U.S. deficit, and geopolitical tensions—investors are increasingly viewing gold as a portfolio diversifier and hedge against tail risks. Gold’s appeal lies in its unique characteristics: it carries no counterparty risk, doesn’t depend on repayment, and doesn’t need to generate yield to justify its portfolio role.

Gold bar with rising price chart alongside oil pump jack at sunset with declining price chart, illustrating the gold and oil inverse correlation
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Gold bar resting on financial newspaper — gold price structural bid holds firm amid jobs data and deficit news
News

Jobs Beat, Ceasefire, Deficit: What It Means for Gold

April payrolls smashed forecasts, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held under pressure, and the OMB projected a $2.065 trillion deficit. Gold barely moved. Five briefs explain why the structural case for physical gold is stronger than any single headline.

Read More »
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Why Peace Is Bullish for Gold in 2026 (And War Isn’t)

War usually pushes gold higher. But since Operation Epic Fury began in February 2026, the opposite has played out — gold sells off on escalation and rallies on peace. The reason ties back to fiscal dominance, oil prices, and the path to lower interest rates. This article breaks down the pattern, the macro logic behind it, and what it means for short-term and long-term gold investors.

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