$1 Trillion in New Loans. $0 in New Reserves. Here’s What Banks Are Betting On.

US banks added $1.04 trillion in loans since July 2025 and set aside nothing extra to cover them. Christopher Whalen argues the spotless loss rates measure house price inflation rather than health, and that the risk quietly moved elsewhere. We checked his numbers, and three did not survive.

The Iran War Just Got Worse. Gold Barely Noticed.

Gold and silver crashed when the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated Tuesday, then barely moved when it got worse Wednesday. The real driver isn’t the war — it’s Fed rate-hike odds, already elevated before the strikes began, and what they mean for holding non-yielding metals.

Silver Is Falling Faster Than Gold Today. Its Deficit Didn’t Change.

Gold and silver both fell on rate-hike odds today, but silver dropped further — nearly 2.1% to gold’s 1.9%. The move has nothing to do with silver’s own supply picture. Here’s the mechanism behind the gap, and why the deficit case hasn’t changed.

Gold Isn’t Falling on a Hawkish Fed. Here’s Why.

Gold isn’t falling on a hawkish Fed because the market itself is split — CME, Kalshi, and Polymarket don’t agree on September’s rate hike odds.

Gold and Silver Sink as Warsh Cites AI Boom to Justify More Fed Tightening

A Fed chair just used the AI capital-spending boom as evidence for more inflation-fighting. Here’s the yield-curve mechanism most coverage is missing.

Five Things Moved Gold and Silver This Week. Only One Was Kevin Warsh.

Gold and silver fell as Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech landed today. Four other stories moved gold and silver markets this week for entirely different reasons.

Gold Fell 9% the Last Time Warsh Spoke. He’s Back Tomorrow.

Gold fell roughly 9% the last time Kevin Warsh spoke as Fed chair. He delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow, and the market isn’t taking chances.

Americans Spent More in July. They Got Nothing Extra for It.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis put July consumer spending up $36.3 billion, and up $1.3 billion once prices are stripped out. Core inflation held at 3.3%, a sixty-fifth straight month above target. Here is why gold slipped anyway.

Two Investors Ran the Debt Math Separately. Both Landed on 15% Gold.

Ray Dalio’s August 21 post cited an $11 trillion debt-service figure behind his call to hold 10-15% of a portfolio in gold. Days later, gold-app CEO David McAlvany independently reached a strikingly similar conclusion — and neither man sizes bitcoin anywhere close to gold.

Gold Nears $4,700, Silver Holds Above $69. Why Is Everyone Waiting on One Friday Speech?

Gold pushed past $4,600 and silver held near $69 as Treasury yields and the dollar fell into Friday’s Warsh Jackson Hole speech. Here’s the mechanism connecting five threads — and what a hawkish, dovish, or neutral surprise could mean for both metals.