What’s Driving Gold Prices? Oil, PMI, and Newmont

Published: 23-04-2026, 01:57 pm

Gold and silver market update — April 23, 2026

In this update: Brent crude at $103, a 47-month PMI high with exploding input costs, and Newmont’s mining costs jumping $322 per ounce — together, these are reinforcing the gold price floor. As a result, oil inflation in 2026 and tightening mine supply are making that floor increasingly difficult to break.

Why Did Trump Order the Navy to Shoot Mine-Laying Boats — and What Does It Mean for Gold?

This morning, President Trump posted on Truth Social ordering the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. He also tripled mine-clearing operations. Meanwhile, CENTCOM has now redirected or intercepted 31 ships under the blockade.

Before the war began February 28, roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil passed through Hormuz. Brent crude sits at $103.67 today — up about 54% from a year ago. Higher energy costs feed into consumer prices, which in turn feeds into the inflation environment holding gold at $4,738, even as the dollar strengthens. Ultimately, physical gold doesn’t care who controls the Strait. It measures the cost of a world that can’t find stability.

What Is the PMI Report Really Saying About Inflation — and Why Does It Matter for Gold?

S&P Global’s April flash PMI dropped this morning. Manufacturing jumped to 54.0 — a 47-month high, up from 52.3 in March. Services recovered to 51.3. Strong economy on the surface.

However, look closer. Manufacturing input costs hit a 10-month high — the second-fastest pace of cost inflation since July 2022. Notably, S&P Global cited the Iran war directly as a driver of energy-linked cost pressure.

That’s stagflation in real time: output expanding, costs accelerating, the Fed stuck between two bad options. Because of this, gold doesn’t need a recession to perform. It simply needs a central bank that can’t win. Today’s PMI is describing exactly that.

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Why Is $103 Oil Both Good and Bad for Gold Holders Right Now?

Brent crude hit $103.67 per barrel by 9 a.m. ET — up $2.53 from yesterday and about $37.50 above where it traded a year ago. That marks four straight sessions of gains.

For gold holders, this cuts both ways. Rising oil is inflationary, which historically pushes investors toward gold. However, $103 oil also reinforces “higher for longer” rate expectations. That, in turn, strengthens the dollar and raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Therefore, the same conflict that makes the case for owning gold is also feeding the rate environment that weighs on it. Goldman Sachs has warned that if Hormuz flows stay mostly restricted for another month, Brent could average $120 in Q3 2026. At that point, the inflation argument for gold overwhelms the rate-headwind argument entirely.

What Does Newmont’s Cost per Ounce Tell Us About the Gold Price Floor?

Newmont (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, reports Q1 2026 results after today’s closing bell. Analysts expect $2.07 EPS — up 65.6% year-over-year — on revenues of approximately $6.36 billion.

The profit figure matters less than one cost number. Newmont’s 2026 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance is $1,680 per ounce — up from $1,358 per ounce in full-year 2025, a $322 jump in under 12 months. When production costs rise that fast, new mine supply tightens. As a result, a structural price floor forms beneath gold. Notably, Newmont stock has more than doubled over the past year. That’s not noise. That’s institutions pricing in a sustained high-gold-price environment.

Why Did Silver Reverse Its Outperformance Today — and What Should Holders Do?

Yesterday silver was outperforming gold 2-to-1. Today, however, it flipped. Silver fell approximately 3.5% while gold declined less than 0.3%. As a result, silver is now down more than 15% since the Iran war began — a steeper drawdown than gold.

What explains silver’s volatility versus gold?

This is the dual-role problem. When geopolitical fear spikes, silver’s industrial identity becomes a liability — traders price in demand destruction and sell industrial exposure first. Conversely, when fear eases, silver’s monetary identity takes over and it outperforms. That’s not a flaw. It’s simply the nature of an asset that serves two masters. Consequently, silver requires more conviction and a longer time horizon than gold to ride these swings. Meanwhile, the structural supply deficit is now in its sixth consecutive year. It doesn’t care about this week’s price.

SOURCES
1. U.S. Central Command — CENTCOM Press Releases 2026  |  AP via WSFA News — Trump Orders Navy to Shoot Mine-Laying Boats in Hormuz
2. U.S. Central Command — U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration — The Strait of Hormuz Is the World’s Most Important Oil Transit Chokepoint
4. Fortune — Current Price of Oil, April 23, 2026
5. S&P Global — S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI, April 2026
6. Bloomberg — Goldman Flags $100-Plus Brent If Hormuz Shut Another Month  |  Fortune — Goldman Sachs Oil Price Outlook, April 9, 2026
7. Newmont Corporation — Newmont Reports FY2025 Results and Provides 2026 Guidance
8. BusinessWire — Newmont FY2025 Earnings Release, February 19, 2026  |  SEC — Newmont Form 8-K FY2025
9. Reuters via MarketScreener — U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise Marginally, April 23, 2026
10. U.S. Geological Survey — Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — Silver  |  USGS — Silver Statistics and Information

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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