Gold Traders' Report - June 13, 2018

Jim Pogoda, Trader, Gold Bullion International 
JUN 13, 2018

Gold traded slightly lower overnight, but remained in a narrow range ($1296.20 - $1292.20) along with other markets, awaiting this afternoon’s FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference.

It dipped briefly below support at $1293-95 (quadruple bottom – 6/6, 6/7, 6/8, 6/11 ,and 6/12 lows) during European time, but support at $1292 (up trendline from 12/15/16 $1123 low) held.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, bargain hunting bids brought it quickly back to $1295. Gold softened against some modest firming in dollar (DX from 93.80 – 93.98), which was helped by a dip in the pound ($1.3370 – uninspiring UK inflation data).

Global equities were mostly a tad higher and a headwind for gold with the NIKKEI up 0.4%, the SCI was off 1%, Eurozone shares were up from 0.2% to 0.5%, and S&P futures were +0.2%. In addition, tweets from Trump on underscored the lessened geopolitical tensions from North Korea:

"Just landed - a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!

5:56 AM - Jun 13, 2018"

"Before taking office people were assuming that we were going to War with North Korea. President Obama said that North Korea was our biggest and most dangerous problem. No longer - sleep well tonight!

6:01 AM - Jun 13, 2018"

At 8:30 AM, reports on US PPI (0.5% vs. exp. 0.3%) and Core PPI (0.3% vs. exp. 0.2%) were hotter than expected, but markets largely shrugged them off.

The US 10-year yield ticked up to 2.966%, but the DX, after only a momentary move up from 93.77 – 93.81, turned lower. A strengthening euro ($1.1792) and a rebound in the pound ($1.3308 - $1.3389, supportive comments by May) sent the DX down to 93.54 by mid-day.

Gold popped higher, and took out the overnight high to reach $1299.20. A pullback in US stocks (S&P unch to 2786) aided the move.

In the afternoon, markets stabilized ahead of the much-awaited FOMC meeting statement at 2PM and the 2:30PM Powell press conference for near-term direction. However, markets will quickly veer to tomorrow’s ECB meeting along with Draghi’s press conference and tomorrow night’s BoJ meeting for further guidance.


In the news:

Countries around the world have begun pulling their gold from US vaults

Gold is dirt cheap right now

Gold technical analysis – on the verge of confirming a fresh bearish breakdown

The Fed is hiking rates Wednesday, but here’s what else you need to know

Resistance levels: 

$1297 – 20-day moving average

$1299 – 6/13 high

$1300 – psychological level, options

$1300 – 6/12 high

$1300 -03–7 tops 6/1, 6/5,6/6, 6/7, 6/8, 6/11, and 6/12 highs

$1301 – 50% retracement of up move from 12/12/17 $1236 low to 1/25/18 $1366 high

$1301 – down trendline from 5/15 $1315 top

$1306 -08 – quadruple top, 5/24, 5/25, 5/29, and 5/31 highs

$1307– 200-day moving average

$1307 – 40 day moving average

$1314 – 50 day moving average

$1315 – 5/15 high

$1318 -19 – quadruple top 5/3, 5/7, 5/8 and 5/9 highs

$1322-23 – 5/10 and 5/14 highs

$1323 – 100-day moving average

$1325-27 – quadruple  top, 4/26, 4/27, 4/30, and 5/11 highs

$1325 – options

$1332-33 – double top - 4/24 and 4/25 highs

$1335 – 4/23 high

$1334-35 triple bottom – 4/12, 4/13, and 4/20 lows

$1333 – 50% retracement of down move from 4/11 $1365 high to 5/1 $1302 low

$1346 – 4/20 high

$1350 – options

$1355 - 57 – quadruple top, 3/26, 3/27, 4/18, and 4/19 highs

$1364 – down trendline from 7/6/16 $1375 high

$1365-67 – 6 tops 4/11, 1/25, 8/2/16, 8/3/16, 8/4/16, and 8/5/16 highs

$1375 – 7/6/16 high   

$1388-89 – double top 3/16/14, 3/17/14 highs

Support levels:

$1293-95 –quadruple bottom – 6/6, 6/7, 6/8, 6/11 ,and 6/12 lows

$1292  - up trendline from 12/15/16 $1123 low

$1292 – 6/13 low

$1288 – double bottom, 5/22 and 5/23 lows

$1281-82 – double bottom, 5/21  and 12/27 lows

$1275 – options

$1273 – double bottom, 12/25 and 12/26 lows

$1267 – up trendline from 1/6/17 $1171 low

$1265 – 12/22 low