Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Silver prices have been anything but calm lately. Big down days. Big up days. Headlines calling the moves “statistically impossible” or proof that the system is breaking.
It’s no surprise that this kind of action makes investors uneasy. But according to the data, the real problem isn’t silver’s behavior — it’s the mental model most investors are using to interpret it.
In today’s video, GoldSilver’s Director of Research, Alan Hibbard, explains why silver’s volatility looks shocking through a traditional Wall Street lens, why those models fail badly in real markets, and why volatility is often exactly what you should expect during major repricing events.
Why Silver’s Price Action Feels So Unsettling
Most investors are taught to think in terms of “normal” markets. Prices move gradually. Big daily swings are rare. Extreme events are supposed to happen once in a lifetime — if ever.
So when silver drops sharply one day and surges the next, the conclusion seems obvious: something must be wrong. The bull market must be over. The models must be broken.
But here’s the catch: those conclusions only make sense if silver actually behaves like a normal market.
It doesn’t.
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The Fatal Flaw in Normal Market Models
Traditional financial models assume that price returns follow a normal distribution — a neat bell curve where extreme outcomes are vanishingly rare. As Alan explains, this assumption is at the core of why so many investors misread what’s happening in silver right now.
Under that framework, a so‑called “6‑sigma” trading day should occur once every few million years. A “10‑sigma” event? Essentially never.
Yet silver has produced these so‑called “impossible” moves repeatedly.
When you look at silver’s actual daily returns going back to 1970, a very different picture emerges. Yes, there is a bell curve — but it’s not normal. The tails are fat. Extreme moves happen far more often than the models predict.
In fact, silver experiences 6‑sigma‑or‑greater moves roughly once every 19 months. That’s not a glitch. That’s history.
The market isn’t broken. The model is.
What Volatility Really Signals During Repricing Events
Here’s where things get interesting. Alan points out that silver doesn’t operate under one constant regime — it shifts between periods of calm trading and periods of violent repricing.
When silver trades in a quiet, sideways range, daily returns cluster tightly around the average. That looks “normal” — and it feels comfortable.
But when silver enters a repricing phase, those returns spread out dramatically. Large up days. Sharp down days. Extreme Z‑scores in both directions.
This isn’t chaos. It’s how repricing works.
To move from one valuation regime to another — especially by multiples — prices can’t glide smoothly higher. As Alan explains, repricing requires discomfort, shakeouts, and violent moves that force the market to reset expectations. They have to shake out weak hands, reset positioning, and discover a new range. Volatility isn’t a side effect of that process. It’s a requirement.
Seen through that lens, sudden drops followed by powerful rebounds don’t invalidate the bullish thesis. They confirm that something larger is underway.
Why Volatility Can Be a Feature, Not a Bug
Investors who mistake volatility for failure often panic at exactly the wrong time. According to Alan, this reaction is driven by expecting silver to behave like a low‑volatility financial asset — something it has never been. They interpret sharp moves as proof that their thesis is wrong — and exit before the biggest gains occur.
But investors who understand silver’s historical behavior know something different: major upside moves are almost always accompanied by uncomfortable volatility.
Nothing fundamental about silver’s long‑term drivers has changed. Alan emphasizes that the core forces behind silver — supply constraints, sovereign influence, monetary conditions, and volatility itself — remain firmly in place. Structural supply deficits remain. Sovereign demand persists. Monetary conditions are still loose. And volatility itself supports the repricing case.
If volatility disappeared entirely — if silver suddenly behaved like a textbook market — that would be far more concerning.
The Bigger Takeaway
Silver isn’t broken. And the market isn’t malfunctioning.
What’s happening looks extreme only if you’re using tools that were never designed to explain real‑world repricing events.
Understanding how silver actually behaves — not how textbooks say it should behave — can make the difference between panic selling and staying positioned for what comes next.
To see the charts, data, and full walkthrough — directly from Alan — watch the full video below.
Watch the full video to understand why silver’s volatility may be the signal, not the warning.
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People Also Ask
Why is silver so volatile right now?
Silver is volatile because it’s in a repricing phase, not because the market is broken. As GoldSilver explains, silver doesn’t move smoothly when it’s resetting to a higher valuation — large swings are a normal part of that process.
Is silver’s recent volatility a bad sign for investors?
Not necessarily. Historically, silver’s biggest long-term moves have been accompanied by extreme volatility. According to GoldSilver’s research, volatility often signals that a larger repricing is underway, not that the thesis is wrong.
Does silver follow a normal market pattern like stocks?
No. Silver does not follow a normal distribution of returns the way many financial models assume. GoldSilver’s analysis shows that extreme price moves in silver happen far more often than traditional Wall Street models predict.
What is a “sigma event” and why does it matter for silver?
A sigma event measures how extreme a price move is compared to historical averages. While models suggest large sigma events should be nearly impossible, GoldSilver’s data shows silver experiences them regularly — especially during major repricing periods.
Should investors avoid silver because of extreme price swings?
Avoiding silver solely because of volatility can be a mistake. GoldSilver points out that volatility is often required for silver to move higher over time, and understanding this behavior helps investors avoid panic-driven decisions.
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