Gold Price Today: What to Watch Before the April 29 FOMC

Gold and silver market update — April 23, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Gold is trading near $4,707 on Thursday April 23, down from opening highs around $4,740. Silver slipped from the high $77s toward $75.
• A firm dollar at one-week highs and elevated inflation expectations drove both moves.
• Jobless claims printed 214,000 for the week ending April 18 — up 6,000 from the prior week, slightly above forecasts.
• The FOMC meets April 28–29 with a 99.5% probability of a hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment reading is the last major data point before the decision.

As of Thursday April 23, 2026, gold is trading near $4,707 per ounce. The Federal Reserve meets in six days.

This week’s data — Thursday’s jobless claims of 214,000 and Friday’s final University of Michigan sentiment reading — are the last material inputs before the April 28–29 FOMC decision. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.5% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%. No cut is coming. The question that matters is what Powell says about the rest of 2026.

What Did Today’s Jobless Claims Data Mean for Gold?

Weekly jobless claims rose to 214,000 for the week ending April 18. That’s up 6,000 from the prior week’s revised 208,000, and slightly above consensus forecasts of around 210,000.

The number itself isn’t alarming. However, a healthy labor market has a specific consequence for gold: it removes the Fed’s primary justification for cutting rates.

Strong jobs data keeps the Fed on hold. A Fed on hold keeps real yields elevated. Elevated real yields keep the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold high. Every week of healthy claims is another week the Fed can credibly say: we’re in no rush.

The dollar index held around 98.5 on Thursday — one-week highs. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for international buyers. On Thursday, the yield headwind and the currency headwind arrived together.

“Elevated oil is anchoring inflation expectations and reinforcing the case for a higher interest rate environment, with markets pricing in no rate cuts through 2026, posing a headwind for non-yielding bullion,” said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

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What Did the Warsh Hearing Confirm — and Why Did Gold Drop 2%?

Tuesday April 21’s gold selloff was the metal’s largest single-day drop since March 26, exceeding 2%. It was “primarily driven by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh,” according to a note from ICBC, the Chinese bank and London bullion clearer.

At his Senate Banking Committee hearing, Warsh was direct. The president never asked him to pre-commit to any rate decision. “Nor would I ever agree to do so.” On inflation: the “trajectory … is improving, but there’s more work to do.”

Gold sold off 2% the same day. That was the market’s answer.

The April 21 hearing GoldSilver previewed landed exactly in the hawkish scenario. Markets got the confirmation they were watching for — and priced it immediately.

What Will the Fed Decide on April 29?

The rate decision is not in question. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.5% probability of a hold at 3.50%–3.75% on April 28–29. This is Powell’s final FOMC meeting as chair before Warsh takes over on May 15.

What Powell Says Matters More Than What He Does

What matters is the language. Specifically, markets want to know whether Powell signals any openness to cuts later in 2026 if oil comes down. That’s the sentence markets are waiting for. If the statement instead doubles down on patience, the ceiling on gold holds.

The Fed’s March dot plot pencilled in a single 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026. April’s preliminary University of Michigan inflation expectations surged to 4.8% — a one-point jump from March, the largest single-month spike since April 2025. Even that one cut now looks contingent on conditions improving.

This is a non-SEP meeting. No updated dot plot. Every signal comes from the statement and the press conference.

Why Does Tomorrow’s University of Michigan Reading Matter for Gold?

The University of Michigan releases its final April consumer sentiment reading tomorrow, Friday April 24, at 10am ET.

The preliminary reading, published April 10, was stark. Sentiment crashed to 47.6 — the lowest in the survey’s 74-year history, down 10.7% from March’s 53.3. One-year inflation expectations hit 4.8%, up a full percentage point from March. The five-year outlook ticked up to 3.4%.

Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that 98% of interviews were completed before the April 7 ceasefire announcement. That means the data captures peak war anxiety, not the mood after it.

Tomorrow’s final reading may revise those numbers. The direction matters more than the headline.

If the revision comes in higher, a hawkish hold statement becomes more likely and gold’s ceiling stays in place. If it comes in lower, it’s the first real sign the energy shock is peaking — and the rate-cut window begins to crack open. Either way, gold investors will have a cleaner read on the Fed’s hand before April 29 than they do right now.

Is Gold’s Current Pullback a Problem — or the Setup?

Gold’s all-time high was approximately $5,590 on January 28, 2026. It’s now near $4,707 — about 16% below that peak, still up more than 40% year-over-year.

The pullback has a specific cause. It’s a rate environment the Fed cannot exit cleanly. And it can’t exit cleanly because of a fiscal problem that predates the Iran war and survives it.

The US fiscal deficit is projected near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026. Annual debt service costs now rival the entire defense budget. Raise rates aggressively and Treasury refinancing spirals. Cut rates prematurely and inflation accelerates into an already-elevated baseline.

The Fed is not choosing patience. It is out of clean options.

The Fed meeting is noise. The debt is signal.

Why Are Central Banks Still Buying Gold?

Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. That’s the fourth consecutive year of historically elevated buying — nearly double the pre-2022 annual average of 473 tonnes, per the World Gold Council.

Those institutions aren’t reacting to a ceasefire timeline. They’re responding to the same fiscal constraints that haven’t changed and won’t change on April 29.

The short-term ceiling is real yields. The long-term floor is the debt. Holding physical gold through Powell’s final meeting isn’t speculation. That’s conviction.

Key Dates to Watch

Friday April 24, 10am ET — UMich final April reading. The 4.8% preliminary inflation expectations figure is the number to watch. A revision in either direction sets the tone heading into the FOMC.

April 28–29 — FOMC meeting and Powell press conference. The hold is priced in. Listen for any language acknowledging that a Strait of Hormuz reopening and falling oil would change the path — that’s the conditional the market needs to hear.

The Catalyst Without a Deadline — The Strait of Hormuz remains the single most powerful near-term catalyst. A credible reopening pulls oil lower, eases inflation expectations, and removes the ceiling above gold. The Fed meeting passes in a week. The Strait question doesn’t have a deadline.

SOURCES
1. TradingEconomics — Gold Spot Price, April 23, 2026
2. TradingEconomics — Silver Spot Price, April 23, 2026
3. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Initial Claims (ICSA), Week Ending April 18, 2026
4. Bloomberg — US Jobless Claims Rise to 214,000, Signal Low Layoffs
5. Goodreturns — Gold Rates & Silver Rates Today, April 23, 2026 (Kaynat Chainwala, Kotak Securities)
6. Yahoo Finance — Fed Confirmation Live: Kevin Warsh Testifies Before Senate, April 21, 2026
7. PBS NewsHour — Kevin Warsh Testifies in Senate Banking Confirmation Hearing
8. Heygotrade / Bloomberg — Gold Prices Rebound After Sharpest Drop Since March
9. CME Group — FedWatch Tool, April 28–29 FOMC Meeting Probability
10. CNBC — Kevin Warsh Fed Confirmation Hearing: Trump Live Updates, April 21, 2026
11. Charles Schwab — FOMC Meeting: Fed Holds Rates Steady, Still Sees One Cut in 2026
12. Federal Reserve — FOMC Meeting Calendar 2026
13. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers — Preliminary April 2026 Release
14. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT)
15. CBS News — What Is the Highest Gold Price in History? January 28, 2026 All-Time High
16. Congressional Budget Office — The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
17. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — CBO Estimates $1 Trillion Deficit for First Five Months of FY 2026
18. World Gold Council — Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2025

By the GoldSilver Editorial Team — helping investors understand sound money since 2005. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.    

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