Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 11-04-2026, 02:41 pm | Updated: 11-04-2026, 02:42 pm
Last verified November 2026.
Michael Oliver, founder and chief analyst at Momentum Structural Analysis, returns to The GoldSilver Show with Megan King Diaz. In part two, he moves from metals to the banks, the Fed, the stock market and the 30-year bond. His full case is featured in the interview below.
Key Takeaways:
- Oliver has studied bank stocks for four months, while most investors still watch AI and chip names.
- He says a bank stress signal could push the Fed toward printing instead of hiking rates.
- His own momentum work puts the S&P 500 close to a multi-year structural floor.
- He expects the current bond rally to fail, which would leave gold as the main alternative.
Why Is This Analyst Watching Bank Stocks Instead of AI Stocks?
Because a relative-value chart he tracks back to 2006 gave him an early warning once before. Oliver compares a broad financial-sector fund against the S&P 500, month by month. He has tracked that ratio since 2006 [Michael Oliver interview, October 23, 2026]. That ratio started falling well before the market topped in October 2007. Stocks did not peak for several more months.
He says the same financial sector stayed flat against the S&P for years after 2009. It never regained its old relative value, even while posting new price highs alongside the broader market. Recently, that ratio broke down to fresh lows.
Oliver’s own trend work goes further than price alone. He says a handful of large, well-known bank stocks are now down 10 to 12 percent from their highs. That drop is breaking what he calls their “momentum trend structures”. In his view, that pattern argues for more than a routine pullback.
He separates this from a 2023 regional-bank scare, when smaller lenders fell roughly 50 percent in a month. This time, he says, the pressure sits inside the largest, most systemically important banks.
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What Happens When the Fed Can’t Officially React to Bank Stress?
It still reacts anyway, according to Oliver, just without saying so directly. The Fed’s mandate covers employment and inflation, not bank-stock prices. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent on October 28. Two officials pushed for a hike instead [Federal Reserve, October 28, 2026]. The Fed’s own September projections had already penciled in one more hike this year.
Oliver argues that calculation changes fast once bank executives start calling. He expects one clear bank-related headline, short of an actual failure, to unsettle everyday investors. That alone could be enough to shift the policy debate from hikes toward cuts, in his view.
He adds that unemployment data will not warn anyone early. Historically, the jobless rate stays calm until stocks have already fallen a fifth from their highs. It then turns sharply worse [Michael Oliver interview, October 23, 2026]. By the time that number moves, he says, the Fed is already reacting to pressure, not leading on data.
Oliver’s bottom line is direct: bank stress gives the Fed cover to pivot. That could mean skipping planned hikes or cutting rates. It could even mean buying assets in the open market, the way it did during the pandemic. Every one of those paths points toward more money creation, not less. He says that is exactly what gold responds to.
Is the Stock Market Close to a Structural Breakdown?
By Oliver’s own momentum measure, yes, and closer than most price charts suggest. He plots the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq against a rolling three-year average. That span roughly matches a 200-day moving average [Michael Oliver interview, October 23, 2026]. That annual-momentum line has held for years without breaking.
He says the index is now approaching that long-standing floor. A further move of just 5 to 6 percent, in his estimate, would break the structure outright. Price charts alone do not yet show this strain; his momentum work does.
Oliver applies the same logic to chip stocks. He expects them to lead any downside move, the way they led the rally. He also points to a steady run of layoffs across multiple companies. Meanwhile, job growth concentrates mainly in hospitality and healthcare. In his view, that shift signals weakening demand beneath a still-positive headline economy.
Could the Bond Market’s Safe Haven Role Fail?
Oliver thinks the current rally in long-term Treasurys is a trap, not a floor. He turned bearish on 30-year Treasury bond futures back in April. That call came well above where prices have since traded [Michael Oliver interview, October 23, 2026]. Prices fell from there to new multi-decade lows before a recent bounce.
He calls that bounce a likely failing rally, not a genuine low. In his view, another leg down in bond prices, meaning another spike in long-term yields, still lies ahead. He frames that risk as a second shock arriving on top of bank and stock market stress.
If that rally fails, Oliver says it would matter beyond the bond market itself. Investors currently treat Treasurys as a credible alternative during times of stress. A second failed rally would undercut that belief and narrow the list of real alternatives left standing.
That narrowing, in his view, points straight back to gold, silver and the broader commodity complex. Fewer competing havens, he argues, means more capital with fewer places left to go.
What Does Momentum Reveal That Price Alone Can’t?
It partly strips out the effect of a shrinking dollar, according to Oliver. Any asset’s rising price reflects two things. One is its own supply and demand. The other is the falling value of the money used to measure it [Michael Oliver interview, October 23, 2026]. Momentum analysis tries to separate the two.
He points to a long-term comparison. Gold has far outpaced growth in the M2 money supply since 2000. The S&P 500 has merely kept pace with it. In his telling, that means stock market investors have barely preserved purchasing power since then, despite headline price gains.
Momentum also tends to turn before price does, in Oliver’s experience. A market can keep rising on the surface while its underlying momentum structure is already failing underneath. He says that gap is exactly what is forming in stocks right now.
What Does the Full Interview Reveal That This Article Doesn’t?
Plenty. Oliver lays out the exact bond-price target he expects on this next leg down. He names the two large miners that institutional buyers have rotated into so far. He also explains, in far more depth, why he thinks this asset shift reaches Japan, Europe and China at once.
This conversation is part two of a two-part interview. Part one covered gold’s current pullback and its parallels to 2008; read it if you missed it.
For more on the mechanics behind this thesis, see our report: why bonds compete with gold during times of stress.
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People Also Asked
A relative-value chart comparing bank stocks to the S&P 500 warned of trouble before the 2007 market top. Analyst Michael Oliver says a similar breakdown is happening now, concentrated in large, systemically important banks rather than regional lenders.
Possibly, according to Oliver. The Fed has no formal mandate covering bank-stock stress, but he expects pressure from bank executives and rattled investors to push policy away from hikes. He says that shift would favor renewed money creation, which has historically supported gold.
By one momentum measure, yes. Analyst Michael Oliver tracks the S&P 500 and Nasdaq against a rolling three-year average and says both indexes sit close to breaking a long-standing floor, even though standard price charts do not yet show the same strain.
Momentum tries to separate an asset’s own price behavior from the effect of a weakening dollar. Michael Oliver notes gold has far outpaced money-supply growth since 2000, while stocks have only kept pace with it.
Watch the Full Interview
Michael Oliver’s full conversation with Megan King Diaz covers his exact bond-price target. It names the miners drawing institutional buyers. It also lays out his full case for a global shift out of paper assets. Watch the complete interview below.
Watch the full interview with Michael Oliver on The GoldSilver Show
SOURCES
1. The GoldSilver Show – Michael Oliver, Momentum Structural Analysis, Part 2 – October 23, 2026
2. Federal Reserve – FOMC Statement, October 28, 2026 (rates held 3.75%-4.00%, 10-2 vote)
3. GoldSilver – Michael Oliver: Is Gold’s 29% Drop Just Like 2008? (Part 1) – November 2, 2026
4. GoldSilver – Silver Breaks Below $50. Why Is It Falling Faster Than Gold? – November 2, 2026
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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