Silver Is Outperforming Gold by a Third This Morning. The Fed Hasn’t Even Voted Yet.

Silver is beating gold by a wide margin this morning, running about a third larger a gain, hours before the Fed’s rate decision. Here’s the mechanism behind the divergence — and what to watch once the Fed actually votes.

The Cantillon Effect: Why Money Printing Makes Some People Rich First

New money doesn’t reach everyone at once: banks and asset holders get it first, wage earners get it last, after prices have already moved. Using Fed balance-sheet data and its own Distributional Financial Accounts, this piece traces exactly how that sequence played out from 2008 to 2022, and why physical gold and silver sit outside the mechanism entirely.

The BLS Revised April Up 64,000, Then Down 31,000. Gold Traded the First Print.

August payrolls beat every published forecast by more than 100,000, and gold sold off on it. But the BLS has revised this same series by nearly as much, twice this year, in both directions. Horizon, not accuracy, is the variable a holder controls.

What Is ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and How It Changed Gold Forever

A zero interest rate policy holds the central bank’s short-term target at or near zero. The Federal Reserve did it twice, for nine of fourteen years. But zero rates alone never moved gold. The real policy rate did, and it explains today’s market better than the headline number does.

The Fed Just Priced Out Half a Rate Hike. Gold Barely Noticed.

September rate hike odds fell to roughly 50.3% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled he could support a hold. Gold barely responded. It had already banked a 2.4% gain before he spoke, then slipped. Here is which channel is actually driving the metal, and what August CPI decides.

$1 Trillion in New Loans. $0 in New Reserves. Here’s What Banks Are Betting On.

US banks added $1.04 trillion in loans since July 2025 and set aside nothing extra to cover them. Christopher Whalen argues the spotless loss rates measure house price inflation rather than health, and that the risk quietly moved elsewhere. We checked his numbers, and three did not survive.

Hike Odds Doubled This Week. Real Yields Didn’t.

Hike odds jumped from 35% to 57% in one Fed speech. Real yields moved two basis points. Four data prints this week decide which number gold should believe.

The Fed Has Two Hike Numbers Right Now. Almost Everyone Quotes the Wrong One.

Fed funds futures report later meetings as a running total, not as separate bets. That single quirk explains why two very different hike numbers are circulating this week, why neither one is wrong, and which of the two actually sets the cost of holding metal into year-end.

A Stablecoin Issuer Bought More Gold Last Year Than Any Central Bank

The Fed’s flagship conference is about payment rails this year, not the level of rates. ECB data explains why that is a gold story, and why the most striking buyer of 2025 was not a central bank at all.

Gold Nears $4,700, Silver Holds Above $69. Why Is Everyone Waiting on One Friday Speech?

Gold pushed past $4,600 and silver held near $69 as Treasury yields and the dollar fell into Friday’s Warsh Jackson Hole speech. Here’s the mechanism connecting five threads — and what a hawkish, dovish, or neutral surprise could mean for both metals.