Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
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TOP NEWSHow the "3 Lenses of Perception" Focus Left, Right & Libertarian Views - Mike Maloney
In this episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard explore the fundamental “lenses of perception” that influence how different
Could This Mega Deal Create Mining's New Giant?
Rio Tinto and Glencore discuss potential $160B merger that could create a new copper powerhouse to rival industry leader BHP.
READ MOREAnalysts: Trump's Trade Policy Could Push Gas Prices Higher
Despite President Trump's promises to lower gas prices, analysts predict prices could rise significantly due to seasonal factors and proposed tariffs. Seasonal factors, including refinery maintenance and summer-blend transition, could push prices up 25-75 cents per gallon by spring. Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could further increase prices, especially in the Midwest, where Canadian oil imports are crucial for refineries. Additionally, his pledge to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "right to the top" could tighten oil supplies and boost prices. Industry experts note that despite Trump's "drill, baby, drill" agenda, oil companies remain focused on shareholder returns rather than increasing production, and current U.S. oil output is already at record levels.
READ MOREGold Breaks Free: Technical Breakout Targets $2,800
Gold has emerged from its December wedge pattern with strong bullish momentum following the U.S. presidential transition. The precious metal has decisively broken above significant resistance at $2,721, marking an end to its recent period of indecision and stagnation. Technical analysis, supported by MACD momentum indicators, suggests a healthy uptrend with $2,800 as the next major target. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain and strong resistance may emerge at higher levels, traders are actively seeking entry opportunities on both daily and 4-hour timeframes during any potential pullbacks.
READ MOREDollar Weakness Propels Gold Toward $2,800 Milestone
Gold prices are approaching record highs as markets react positively to President Trump's measured approach to tariffs in his first days in office. Despite campaign promises, Trump's first 24 hours in office have been marked by a more gradual approach to tariffs, with targeted threats rather than immediate universal implementation. This measured stance has weakened the US dollar, benefiting gold prices which have broken above key resistance at $2,715-20. Technical analysis suggests bullish momentum following a breakout from a November-December symmetrical triangle pattern, positioning the metal for a potential test of record highs near $2,790 or even $2,800+. However, a drop below $2,715 could trigger a pullback toward the 100-day moving average around $2,650.
READ MOREOil Stable as Markets Weigh Trump's Tariffs and Energy Plans
Oil markets held steady on Wednesday as traders assess multiple factors affecting global energy markets. President Trump's proposed tariffs - 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports starting February 1 - have shifted market focus from Russian sanctions to potential trade policy impacts. Additionally, Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency and plans to maximize domestic production have yet to significantly influence prices. Meanwhile, operational disruptions from severe winter weather affected Motiva's Port Arthur complex and reduced North Dakota's oil production by 130,000-160,000 barrels per day.
READ MOREMortgage Rates Break Six-Week Climb as Treasury Yields Ease
US mortgage rates experienced their first decline in six weeks, falling 7 basis points to 7.02%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest data. The decrease has helped sustain home purchase applications at their highest level in a year, with the purchase index rising 0.6%. The drop in rates mirrors falling Treasury yields, sparked by encouraging inflation data that strengthened expectations for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. The trend could continue as markets respond positively to President Trump's measured approach to tariff implementation in his first days in office. However, refinancing activity showed a contrasting trend, declining 2.9% during the same period.
READ MOREMining Industry Unfazed by Trump's EV Policy Rollback
Despite Trump's rollback of US electric vehicle targets, industry experts remain optimistic about critical minerals demand, citing strong global EV growth, particularly in China. While the policy change affected stock prices of automotive, battery, and mining companies, analysts emphasize that global EV adoption continues to accelerate, particularly in China, which dominates with 65% of the market. Industry leaders, including Liontown Resources CEO Antonino Ottaviano, maintain their bullish outlook, noting that markets outside North America are growing at 27% annually and could soon surpass the entire North American market. The resilience of global demand, especially in Asia and Europe, is expected to offset any potential slowdown in US EV adoption resulting from Trump's policy changes.
READ MOREAllianz: Traditional Gold Drivers Give Way to New Forces
Gold's traditional market drivers are evolving, with fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks replacing historical factors like US dollar weakness and real yields. The precious metal has demonstrated remarkable strength, outperforming other major asset classes since late 2022, despite economic conditions that typically favor riskier assets. Looking ahead to 2025, gold's outlook remains positive, driven by structural shifts including mounting fiscal deficits, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank purchases amid de-dollarization efforts. While temporary setbacks may occur due to profit-taking or dollar strength, these factors are unlikely to derail gold's long-term upward trajectory. The metal's recent performance reinforces its role as a crucial tool for portfolio diversification, particularly as traditional safe-haven assets like Treasuries lose their appeal.
READ MOREEinhorn Sounds Alarm on Tech Valuations, Memecoin Mania
Greenlight Capital's fourth-quarter letter reveals a cautious stance on market valuations and limited exposure to the tech sector that drove 2023's market gains. The hedge fund, which returned 7% last year, expressed concerns about Apple's valuation multiple expansion despite stagnant revenue growth. While maintaining a defensive posture, the firm made several strategic investments, including a new position in Peloton, betting on its loyal customer base and cost-cutting potential. The fund also invested in CNH Industrial and Centene, while adjusting its portfolio by selling defense ETFs and healthcare positions in response to political changes. Notably, Einhorn criticized the cryptocurrency market's speculative nature, comparing it to the "fartcoin stage of the market cycle," though the fund profited from a sophisticated crypto-related trading strategy involving MicroStrategy and related ETFs.
READ MOREGold Rises Above $2,750 as Trump's Tariffs Spark Inflation Fears
Gold prices experienced a dramatic surge, jumping nearly 2% on Tuesday and extending gains to $2,750 per ounce following Donald Trump's first day back in office. The precious metal's rally was fueled by the new president's signing of over 200 executive orders, particularly those related to tariffs, which markets fear could reignite inflation. This breakthrough above a triple top technical formation has positioned gold within striking distance of its all-time high of $2,790, set during the Middle East conflict in October. While the Fed had previously signaled two rate cuts for 2025, rising inflation expectations might force a policy reassessment, creating a complex dynamic where gold benefits both from its traditional role as an inflation hedge and potential dollar strength resulting from the tariff policies.
READ MOREJPMorgan Execs Bullish on US Economy Despite Inflation Concerns
At the 2025 Davos forum, JPMorgan's top executives struck an optimistic tone about the US economic outlook, while maintaining a careful eye on inflation risks. President Daniel Pinto expressed confidence in the current economic cycle's sustainability, though he emphasized that inflation remains a potential concern. This positive outlook was reinforced by Filippo Gori, head of JPMorgan's banking division, who pointed to renewed market enthusiasm driven by what he described as a more favorable regulatory environment under the new administration. Their observations came amid broader discussions at Davos spanning topics from interest rates to geopolitical challenges, with participation from global leaders including UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Spain's Premier Pedro Sanchez.
READ MOREMarkets Breathe Easier: China Tariff Hold Boosts Treasury Prices
US Treasury markets experienced a significant rally as President Trump's selective approach to tariffs temporarily calmed inflation fears. The decision to postpone China-specific tariffs, combined with falling crude prices following changes to offshore drilling policies, pushed 10-year yields down by 10 basis points to 4.53%. However, the announcement of 25% tariffs targeting Mexico and Canada created new market dynamics, sending their currencies tumbling over 1% and strengthening the dollar. While some analysts, including UBS's Mark Haefele, predict further yield declines and potential Fed rate cuts, others like ING and Nomura view this rally as temporary, citing structural pressures and ongoing deficit concerns. The market's reaction highlights the increasing sensitivity to policy shifts, with overnight-indexed swaps now indicating a 52% probability of multiple rate cuts this year.
READ MOREContrarian Traders Bet on Fed Rate Hikes Despite Market Consensus
A contrarian view is emerging among bond traders that the Federal Reserve might raise rates in 2025 rather than cut them, with options markets showing a 25% probability of a rate hike by year-end. This contrarian position, which emerged after a strong January jobs report, has maintained momentum even after favorable inflation data seemed to reinforce the Fed's rate-cutting stance. Options markets now show approximately 25% odds of a rate hike by year-end, down slightly from 30% before recent CPI data. The unconventional bet is largely tied to expectations about incoming President Trump's policies, particularly potential tariffs and immigration restrictions that could drive inflation higher. Former New York Fed economist Phil Suttle notably predicts a September rate hike, while Vanguard's global head of rates Roger Hallam suggests substantial inflation surprises could shift market expectations toward rate increases. This stands in stark contrast to the mainstream view, which has priced in at least one quarter-point cut and a 50% chance of a second reduction. The divergence highlights the market's growing uncertainty about the Fed's path, especially given historical precedents of quick policy reversals, such as the 1998-1999 period when the Fed shifted from crisis-driven cuts to inflation-fighting hikes within months.
READ MOREBond Markets Rally as Trump Delays Expected Tariff Announcements
Treasury yields fell significantly Tuesday as markets reopened after the holiday weekend, reacting to President Trump's unexpected delay in implementing promised import tariffs. The 10-year yield dropped 5.6 basis points to 4.574%, while 30-year yields fell 5.9 basis points to 4.801%. While Trump later mentioned possible tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting in February, analysts remain divided on the timing and scope of future trade measures, with some still expecting significant tariffs later in the year.
READ MOREChina Holds Rates Steady as Yuan Pressure Constrains Policy Options
China has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the third straight month, keeping the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%. Despite plans for "appropriately loose" monetary policy in 2025, the weakening yuan is limiting Beijing's ability to implement stimulus measures. This cautious approach comes even as the country achieved its 5% growth target last year, with markets now reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts.
READ MORETrump's Currency Manipulation Warning Rattles Global Markets
Global markets were jolted on Trump's first day in office by a new administration fact sheet calling for federal agencies to address currency manipulation by other nations. The move comes at a time when the dollar's strength, driven by high US interest rates and robust growth, already dominates the $7.5 trillion daily foreign exchange market. This policy shift could particularly impact nations on the Treasury's existing monitoring list, including major economies like Japan, China, Germany, and Singapore. Westpac's head of foreign exchange strategy, Richard Franulovich, describes the warning as "ground-breaking," suggesting that the Trump administration and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent may apply broader criteria in labeling currency manipulators. The policy echoes earlier Trump administration plans to prevent nations from moving away from dollar usage, potentially through export controls, manipulation charges, and levies. Analysts warn this could trigger increased market volatility and force countries to allow currency appreciation against the dollar, with China facing particular vulnerability given existing trade tensions with the US.
READ MOREDeadly Clash at Ghana Gold Mine Leaves Seven Dead, Sparks Investigation
A fatal confrontation at AngloGold Ashanti's Obuasi gold mine in Ghana has resulted in multiple deaths and sparked controversy over the circumstances. According to the military, seven illegal miners were killed during a shootout after approximately 60 people carrying locally manufactured rifles breached the mine's security fence and fired on a military patrol. However, Kofi Adams, local chairman of the Ghana National Association of Small Scale Miners, presents a starkly different account, claiming nine unarmed individuals were killed and fourteen severely injured, noting such deadly force was unprecedented at the site. The incident has drawn immediate attention from Ghana's highest office, with President John Dramani Mahama ordering an investigation into what he termed a "tragic" event. The government has instructed AngloGold Ashanti, whose Obuasi and Iduapriem mines produced over 490,000 ounces of gold last year, to assume responsibility for all medical and burial costs. This incident highlights the ongoing tensions between large-scale mining operations and local small-scale miners in Ghana, one of Africa's leading gold producers.
READ MOREInside Zurich's Secret Gold Vaults: Where the Ultra-Wealthy Store Their Billions
Deep beneath Zurich airport lies a testament to gold's enduring allure: a 350-square-meter high-security vault where the ultra-wealthy store their precious metals. Managed by Egon von Greyerz, these facilities require minimum investments of $400,000 for Zurich or Singapore storage, and $5 million for their Swiss Alps location. This exclusive world of gold storage reflects a broader trend, as the Royal Mint reports a 153% increase in bullion sales amid growing global uncertainties. The movement toward gold spans far beyond the ultra-wealthy, though. Von Greyerz, a former Dixons finance director turned gold advocate, argues that gold represents the ultimate form of wealth preservation in an era of unprecedented global debt ($315 trillion) and geopolitical instability. His clients, spanning 90 countries, typically invest 20-50% of their wealth in gold, far exceeding the global average of 0.5%. The precious metal's value has risen over 15,000% since 1970, and with mining reserves potentially running out by 2050, combined with increasing industrial applications and its traditional role as a safe haven, gold's appeal shows no signs of diminishing. Even for smaller investors, von Greyerz advocates buying gold at any affordable level, noting particular advantages like tax-free gains on British gold coins.
READ MOREBridgewater's Dalio Warns of UK 'Debt Death Spiral' Risk
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the UK faces a potential "debt death spiral" as rising borrowing costs force the country to take on more debt to service existing obligations. Speaking to the Financial Times, Dalio highlighted the troubling combination of rising gilt yields, which touched 4.90% (highest since 2008), alongside a weakening pound and deteriorating economic data - a pattern that typically shouldn't occur when monetary policy is expected to ease. The billionaire hedge fund manager points to a fundamental supply-demand problem in the gilt market, suggesting investors are becoming increasingly wary of absorbing UK government debt. This market behavior is particularly concerning as it comes amid cooling inflation and growth data, implying the market's reaction is driven by debt sustainability concerns rather than economic strength. Dalio extends his warning to the US market, noting similar signs of strain in the Treasury market and urging the incoming Trump administration to prioritize addressing the American debt burden. The parallel challenges in both markets underscore growing global concerns about government debt sustainability in major economies.
READ MOREGuggenheim Sees Four Fed Rate Cuts in 2025, Bucking Market Consensus
Guggenheim Partners' Chief Investment Officer Anne Walsh has laid out a bold forecast for 2025, predicting quarterly Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations that have recently scaled back to just one or two cuts. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Walsh expressed a more optimistic view on Trump's trade policies, suggesting tariffs will likely average less than 10% and be more targeted than markets fear, particularly while the dollar maintains its reserve currency status. On the investment front, Walsh sees opportunities in both bonds and equities, highlighting that the bond market's recent range-bound trading creates interesting possibilities. She identifies 5% yields on 10-year Treasury bonds as an "extreme" buying opportunity and expects tight yield spreads to benefit U.S. equities. Walsh projects 8-10% returns for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, driven by artificial intelligence, energy sector developments, and manufacturing reshoring, while cautioning that political-policy tensions could create significant market volatility throughout the year.
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