Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
Today’s gold and silver market news, curated from the best of GoldSilver's team and around the web. Everything precious metals investors need to know including updates on big price swings, macro analysis, and breaking stories. Check back often or subscribe to get the highlights in your inbox. Monitor live spot prices on our charts page.
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TOP NEWSThirty-Six Minutes of Chaos: Analyzing the Flash Crash
The "Flash Crash" wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in minutes, leading to significant regulatory reforms.
$20,000 Gold: Is A Treasury Revaluation Possible?
Could gold be the key to solving America’s debt crisis?
READ MOREFed Officials Suggest Interest Rates May Stay High to Combat Persistent Inflation
Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the aggressive interest rate hikes over the past two years might need more time to effectively reduce inflation, hinting at the possibility of maintaining or even increasing rates rather than cutting them this year. Despite sharp increases, higher borrowing costs have not significantly impacted American spending habits or cooled inflation as expected. This observation suggests that current interest rates may not sufficiently restrain economic activity or inflationary pressures, possibly requiring rates to remain elevated for an extended period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also expressed the need for further observation to ensure inflation approaches the target, leaving the door open for continued high rates.
READ MOREStocks Rise; Key Economic Updates and Corporate Earnings on the Horizon
This week, the stock market saw gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones rising as Wall Street experienced a lull in economic data. The S&P 500 notably surpassed the 5,200 mark for the first time since early April. Looking ahead, key economic indicators such as the April inflation report, retail sales data, and initial jobless claims—which recently hit a nine-month high—will capture attention. Meanwhile, earnings reports from major corporations like Walmart, Home Depot, and Alibaba are set to punctuate a quieter earnings week.
READ MOREGlobal Platinum Market Faces Increased Deficit in 2024, Says WPIC
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a deeper global platinum deficit in 2024 than initially expected, attributing the shortfall to diminishing mine supplies from South Africa and Russia. Although the anticipated deficit of 476,000 troy ounces is less than 2023's 851,000 ounces, due to a 5% decrease in demand, it remains significant. This marks the second consecutive year of platinum scarcity, influenced by ongoing production challenges, including restructuring and delayed production increases in South Africa, along with reduced Russian output due to smelter maintenance and the impact of Western sanctions.
READ MOREInvestingHaven Reveals Seven Charts that Shows Silver is Undervalued
InvestingHaven's analysis presents seven charts illustrating that silver is substantially undervalued when its price is compared across various assets like the Australian Dollar, copper, the Dow Jones, treasuries, the CRB index, and even Bitcoin. This method of assessing silver's value through relative readings against diverse assets reveals a consistent undervaluation, providing a broader perspective on its potential as an investment. This multifaceted approach enhances the understanding of silver's market positioning beyond traditional price evaluations.
READ MOREChina Launches Massive $140 Billion Bond Sale to Fuel Economic Growth
China has initiated the sale of approximately $140 billion (Rmb1tn) in long-dated bonds to stimulate its economy and fund critical long-term projects. The People’s Bank of China is currently consulting with brokers to determine pricing for this substantial bond issue, which was announced during the annual legislative session to boost economic momentum and address ongoing challenges in the property sector. These bonds, which are part of a series of special sovereign bond issuances dating back to 1998, aim to support significant investments in modernization projects that require central government intervention and offer a more secure investment option amid volatility in regional banking and property markets.
READ MORESurvey Shows U.S. Tech Stocks Perceived as New Inflation Hedge
According to a recent Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, while gold remains the preferred hedge against inflation for 46% of respondents, nearly a third now view major U.S. tech stocks as a viable alternative, reflecting a significant shift towards betting on innovation to counteract rising prices. This suggests a growing confidence in the tech sector's ability to offer financial stability even during inflationary periods.
READ MORECurrency Markets Hold Steady as Traders Eye U.S. Inflation Data
Currency markets stabilized on Monday as traders anticipated upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on potential rate cuts in 2024. Following recent weak U.S. labor market results and the Fed's decision against further rate hikes, expectations for easing have increased, with markets predicting about an 80% likelihood of a rate cut by September and a total reduction of around 40 basis points for next year, according to LSEG data.
READ MOREHigh Prices Dampen Gold Demand at India's Akshaya Tritiya Festival
Demand for gold during the Akshaya Tritiya festival in India, a major gold-buying event, was notably lower this year as soaring prices led to reduced retail interest. Despite dealers offering significant discounts, the high costs deterred many buyers, leading them to limit their purchases to small denomination coins. Jewelry sales were particularly weak, with one Mumbai jeweller reporting only about two-thirds of the sales compared to the previous year.
READ MOREGold Retreats from Recent Highs with Upcoming U.S. Inflation Reports in Focus
Gold prices fell on Monday as investors awaited upcoming U.S. inflation reports to gain insights on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold dropped by 0.7% to $2,344.53 per ounce, marking its largest decline in nearly two weeks, while U.S. gold futures also saw a decrease of about 1%. Analysts suggest that profit-taking in anticipation of the CPI data release is influencing the current dip in prices, with expectations that gold will remain relatively stable provided inflation slows down. Key economic indicators, such as the producer price index and consumer price index, are set to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
READ MORESilver Demand Soars as Solar Power Industry Expands Globally
The global surge in solar power adoption is significantly increasing the demand for silver, which is essential for making photovoltaic (PV) panels due to its superior electrical conductivity and thermal efficiency. With silver prices reaching their highest in a decade, mining companies are ramping up production to meet this demand. Last year, global investment in solar PV manufacturing skyrocketed to approximately $80 billion, representing 40% of the world’s clean technology manufacturing investments, according to the International Energy Agency. Notably, China has more than doubled its investment in solar PV manufacturing from 2022 to 2023. This investment has contributed to a 50% increase in global renewable capacity last year, with solar PV accounting for three-quarters of this growth, marking the fastest expansion in 30 years.
READ MOREForbes: What To Expect From April’s CPI Report
The April 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET, is anticipated to reflect a continuation of this year’s relatively higher inflation trends, with headline inflation expected at 0.4% and core inflation at 0.3%. These figures, according to models from the Cleveland Federal Reserve and forecasts from Kalshi, suggest inflation will remain above the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) annual target of 2%. Given these conditions, and with another CPI release set for the day of the FOMC’s June meeting, it is unlikely the FOMC will consider interest rate cuts before July, potentially extending further depending on economic indicators such as job market conditions. This scenario supports the expectation that the Federal Reserve might delay any easing of monetary policy if inflation remains stubbornly high.
READ MOREHow a Second Trump Presidency Could Influence U.S. Inflation Rates
As the 2024 election approaches, economists are speculating on the potential impact of a Donald Trump victory on U.S. inflation. Predictions suggest that a second Trump term could lead to higher tariffs and increased deficits, among other policies, potentially driving inflation upwards. While economic forecasting is not precise, these predictions are based on previous policies and anticipated future actions that could shape economic conditions.
READ MOREBeyond the Numbers: The Varied Impact of Inflation
Inflation, while a key economic indicator, does not impact all demographics uniformly due to the aggregate nature of its measurement. Monthly inflation rates are calculated based on a general basket of goods which may not reflect the true spending habits of various groups, such as low-income or rural families. By examining disaggregated product groups and leveraging high-frequency online price data, researchers can uncover how inflation differentially affects diverse populations, revealing that the experience of inflation varies significantly among different groups.
READ MOREPotential 2025 Recession Could Plunge Stock Market by 30%, Experts Warn
BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim predicts that a recession by early 2025, influenced by continued unemployment and economic difficulties in China, could lead to a 30% decline in the stock market. This view is echoed by Wall Street veteran Gary Shilling, who shared similar concerns with Business Insider. Ibrahim identifies two key factors that signal an impending recession by the end of this year or early next, potentially triggering a significant market correction.
READ MOREWGC: Gold Market Commentary: Higher-for-longer: Inflation not growth
In April, gold prices rose by 4%, closing at $2,307 per ounce, despite a pullback from intra-month highs due to reduced buyer interest and profit-taking, evidenced by lower Chinese premiums, decreased Indian imports, and stable COMEX positions. Conversely, North American gold ETF flows saw a modest increase, aligning with continued strong demand in Asian ETFs.
READ MOREPandemic Savings Depleted: Economic Uncertainty Looms as American Debt Rises
During the pandemic, Americans saved an impressive $2.1 trillion, fueling sustained consumer spending and economic resilience amidst rising interest rates and persistent inflation. However, recent reports from San Francisco Federal Reserve economists Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Edgard Oliveira indicate that these pandemic-era savings are now depleted, with many Americans having more debt than savings as of March 2024. This shift from savings to debt raises concerns about the future of consumer spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy. With the depletion of excess savings and an increase in consumer debt and delinquencies, there are growing worries about potential economic downturns.
READ MOREZeroHedge: Time to Bet Against Banks
In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the Federal Reserve introduced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to stabilize the financial sector, but this program has recently expired. Simultaneously, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has been delayed indefinitely due to ongoing high inflation. This delay means that banks continue to face tough competition from higher-yielding money market funds for depositors. This dual pressure of the expired assistance program and the deferral of rate cuts poses significant challenges for banks, suggesting that now might be an opportune time to bet against them.
READ MORELingering Effects from Past Economic Shocks Continue to Drive Inflation in 2024
Three years after the initial economic disruptions of 2021 and 2022, the lingering effects of those events are still significantly influencing inflation rates in 2024. The primary driver of the current inflation, particularly in the shelter sector where rents and homeowners' equivalent rent have increased by 6.1% annually, stems from these past disruptions. According to Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker, this persistent high inflation is more about "lagged catch-up" rather than a new wave of increases, suggesting that once these residual effects dissipate, inflation is expected to stabilize without further severe economic consequences. This pattern is also evident in other sectors, such as motor vehicle insurance, which has seen a 22.2% rise over the last year.
READ MOREChina Boosts Gold Reserves in Response to Soaring US Dollar
As the US dollar strengthens, driven by ongoing Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, China and other emerging economies are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against economic instability and the rising cost of imports. In April, China's central bank added 60,000 troy ounces to its reserves, continuing an 18-month trend of significant gold acquisitions. This surge in gold buying reflects both a response to economic uncertainties and an effort to mitigate the impact of the dollar's strength, which has surged 10% since early 2022, complicating trade dynamics for countries like China.
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