Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
Today’s gold and silver market news, curated from the best of GoldSilver's team and around the web. Everything precious metals investors need to know including updates on big price swings, macro analysis, and breaking stories. Check back often or subscribe to get the highlights in your inbox. Monitor live spot prices on our charts page.
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TOP NEWSThe Deadline To Turn in Your Gold – May 1st, 1933
We'll also take you back 91 years to reflect on Executive Order 6102 — one of the most highly controversial pieces of legislation in American history.
Chinese Gold Trading EXPLODES
Join Alan Hubbard in today’s update on the massive increase in Chinese gold trading activity.
READ MORERising Interest Rates Challenge Long-Standing Pro-Debt Economic Policies
Over the last decade, many economists have promoted the use of debt to finance government spending, dismissing concerns about potential debt overhangs as advanced economies enjoyed low interest rates. However, the past two years have seen a significant shift in this perspective due to rising inflation and a return to normal long-term real interest rates. A recent reassessment by senior IMF economists highlights that with average debt-to-income ratios in advanced economies projected to rise to 120% of GDP by 2028 and higher borrowing costs becoming the norm, there is a pressing need for these nations to rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure the sustainability of their debt.
READ MOREExpect Continued High Interest Rates as Fed Seeks More Progress on Inflation
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates, emphasizing the need for "greater confidence" that inflation will consistently approach the 2% target. Despite earlier hopes, inflation in early 2024 has exceeded expectations, leading to predictions that even if the Fed were to cut rates later this year, high interest rates on credit cards and mortgages are likely to persist through the end of 2024. Given the declining APYs on longer-term CDs and some high-yield savings accounts, now is an opportune moment to secure higher savings rates.
READ MORECBS News: Top 4 Reasons to Add Gold to Your Portfolio
With inflation remaining high and interest rates elevated, reviewing your investment portfolio this May is more crucial than ever. Gold, which reached its highest investment level in over a decade last year and has been breaking price records recently, presents a unique opportunity. Unlike traditional assets like stocks and bonds, gold operates differently and offers distinct benefits. Considering the current economic conditions, there are several compelling reasons to consider adding gold to your portfolio this month.
READ MOREYen Predicted to Weaken to Lowest Since 1986 Amid Rate Disparities
Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets and the top currency forecaster, predicts the yen could weaken to 165 per dollar, a level last seen in 1986. Despite Japan's potential interventions to support its currency, the significant interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. continues to drive the yen's decline. Tan suggests that effective intervention would require coordination with the U.S., as the currency is expected to breach the 160 level and possibly reach 165 amid sustained bearish sentiment.
READ MOREInteractive Analysis: Has Your Pay Kept Up With Inflation?
The Brookings Institute explores the complexities of measuring real pay, which adjusts nominal earnings for inflation. Given the variety of pay and inflation metrics used, determining trends in real pay can yield differing results. Our interactive tool allows users to select any starting quarter and compare annualized changes in real pay to the most recent data, using four different pay measures and two inflation indices. By interacting with the data, users can see how real pay has shifted over selected periods, helping clarify the relationship between wages and the cost of living.
READ MOREU.S. Job Growth Disappoints in April, Unemployment Ticks Up to 3.9%
In April, U.S. job growth fell short of expectations with only 175,000 jobs added, compared to the forecasted 240,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, marking a deviation from the recent trend of robust employment gains. This shift could influence the Federal Reserve’s strategy on interest rate adjustments. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, figures that were also below expectations, suggesting subdued inflationary pressures. The broader labor market indicators, such as the more comprehensive unemployment rate and labor force participation, also reflected some softening, with the former reaching its highest level since November 2021 at 7.4%.
READ MOREJapan Spends $59 Billion in Market Moves to Bolster Yen Amid Economic Woes
In a bold move to stabilize its currency, Japan is believed to have spent approximately ¥9 trillion ($59 billion) on market interventions over just four days, a move that traders and authorities have not officially confirmed. Despite these significant financial efforts, there are growing concerns among economists, traders, and businesses about the broader economic impact, as Japan's ageing and shrinking population continues to grapple with the after-effects of decades-long deflation. This large-scale intervention underscores the severe challenges the Japanese economy faces, and it may not prevent consumers from curbing their spending.
READ MOREYen Volatility Threatens Profitability of Emerging-Market Carry Trades
Recent interventions by Japanese officials to stabilize the yen have unsettled one of this year's most profitable financial strategies—carry trades. Typically, investors borrow yen due to its low yield and invest in higher-yielding emerging-market currencies. However, a spike in yen volatility to its highest level since July has led to losses this week, particularly affecting investments in the Indian rupee and Colombian peso. Data indicates that the carry-to-risk ratio for these yen-funded investments has dropped significantly from March peaks, suggesting a decrease in the strategy's attractiveness due to increased currency risk.
READ MOREGold Prices Steady as Investors Await Key U.S. Employment Data
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READ MOREStarbucks, McDonald's Feel the Pinch as Diners Tighten Belts
The long-anticipated consumer pullback in spending is now evident in the restaurant industry, with notable chains like Starbucks, KFC, and McDonald’s experiencing declines in same-store sales. Starbucks saw a significant 17% drop in share prices following a surprising sales dip, attributed partially to adverse weather. Similarly, Yum Brands cited January snowstorms and challenging year-over-year comparisons for underwhelming performance across its brands, including Pizza Hut and Taco Bell.
READ MOREBiden Administration Cancels $6.1 Billion in Student Debt for 317,000 Amid Fraud Claims
The Biden administration has announced the forgiveness of $6.1 billion in student debt for 317,000 former students of The Art Institutes, following the chain's closure last fall amid fraud allegations. This move is part of President Biden's broader strategy to address the nation's $1.7 trillion student debt, especially after broader relief efforts were hindered by the Supreme Court last year. The Art Institutes were accused of misrepresenting employment rates and salary data, leaving many graduates with significant debt and few tangible benefits, according to U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona.
READ MORESteady Unemployment Claims Signal Robust U.S. Labor Market
Despite a slight stall in worker productivity in the first quarter, the U.S. labor market remains tight, with unemployment claims maintaining a steady, low level last week. Economists are optimistic, attributing the productivity slowdown to seasonal quirks and maintaining a positive outlook for the economy’s performance in the second quarter.
READ MOREPowell Dismisses Stagflation Fears
During a recent conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed concerns about stagflation, referencing historical contexts where stagflation involved much harsher economic conditions than those seen today. Despite a GDP growth report of 1.6% and a core PCE price index increase of 3.7%, Powell cited current solid growth and inflation under 3% as evidence against imminent stagflation. However, given Powell's previous misjudgments on economic trends, including a missed prediction on post-pandemic inflation spikes, UBS has developed strategies in case his current assessments prove incorrect again.
READ MOREU.S. Labor Market Holds Strong; First Quarter Productivity Sees Minor Dip
The number of new unemployment claims last week stayed low, indicating a strong economic support into the second quarter. Despite a near halt in worker productivity growth in the first quarter, economists dismissed concerns, attributing the slowdown to seasonal patterns and affirming the overall solid productivity trend.
READ MOREGold Prices Dip as U.S. Rate Cut Hopes Diminish Amid Inflation Concerns
Gold prices declined on Thursday as investors reevaluated the likelihood of U.S. interest rate cuts after the Federal Reserve indicated that inflation progress has stalled, suggesting higher interest rates may persist longer. Despite a brief surge in gold prices following a dip in the dollar and Treasury yields, the gains were short-lived. The Fed’s recent decision to maintain steady interest rates, coupled with cautious remarks about potential rate cuts, reflects ongoing concerns about inflation. Analyst Ross Norman noted that while delayed rate cuts are generally seen as negative for gold, the market's fluctuations offer temporary relief.
READ MOREFed's Powell Cautious on Rates, Inflation Data to Guide Future Decisions
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the potential for declining inflation while maintaining a cautious tone on interest rates, acknowledging them as restrictive. Despite Powell's optimism, recent disappointing inflation and wage data have shifted investor focus from the Federal Reserve's forecasts to actual economic trends. Powell asserts his views, but as Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research notes, it is the concrete inflation figures that will ultimately guide the Fed's actions. Meanwhile, the Fed's latest policy statement hints at a potential rate cut, though former advisor William English suggests that persistently high inflation could lead to a reversal of this stance, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes.
READ MOREStress Tests Reveal Hundreds of U.S. Banks at Risk Due to Loans and Rate Hikes
Hundreds of small and regional banks in the U.S. are under financial stress, with 282 facing significant risks from commercial real estate loans and the effects of higher interest rates, according to a study by Klaros Group. While these banks, predominantly holding less than $10 billion in assets, are not nearing insolvency, their strained financial conditions could lead to a reduction in investments like new branches and technology, potentially impacting communities and limiting direct services to customers. Fitch Ratings' Christopher Wolfe and Klaros Group's Brian Graham emphasize that the risk is more about financial pressure than outright failures.
READ MOREGold Recovers After Fed Decision Golds Interest Rates Steady
Gold prices saw a modest recovery on Wednesday, climbing 0.9% to $2,306.80 per ounce, after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate, which led to a slight retreat in both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. The unchanged rate and a weaker dollar made gold more attractive to investors using other currencies, contributing to the day’s gains. This rebound follows a recent dip in gold prices, influenced by diminished Middle East tensions and reduced expectations for early U.S. rate cuts, despite gold reaching a record high earlier in April due to robust demand from central banks and Chinese investors.
READ MOREDramatic Fluctuations for Yen as It Struggles Against Dollar Surge
The Japanese yen experienced dramatic fluctuations on April 29th, initially plummeting to a 34-year low of 160 against the dollar in early trading, only to rebound sharply later in the day. By the close of trading in Asia, the yen had recovered significantly, rising more than 2% to finish at 155 against the dollar. These swings highlight the ongoing challenges Japan faces in stabilizing its currency, which has seen a significant decline against the greenback over the past three years.
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