Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
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TOP NEWSHow the "3 Lenses of Perception" Focus Left, Right & Libertarian Views - Mike Maloney
In this episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard explore the fundamental “lenses of perception” that influence how different
Could This Mega Deal Create Mining's New Giant?
Rio Tinto and Glencore discuss potential $160B merger that could create a new copper powerhouse to rival industry leader BHP.
READ MOREMarkets Breathe Easier: China Tariff Hold Boosts Treasury Prices
US Treasury markets experienced a significant rally as President Trump's selective approach to tariffs temporarily calmed inflation fears. The decision to postpone China-specific tariffs, combined with falling crude prices following changes to offshore drilling policies, pushed 10-year yields down by 10 basis points to 4.53%. However, the announcement of 25% tariffs targeting Mexico and Canada created new market dynamics, sending their currencies tumbling over 1% and strengthening the dollar. While some analysts, including UBS's Mark Haefele, predict further yield declines and potential Fed rate cuts, others like ING and Nomura view this rally as temporary, citing structural pressures and ongoing deficit concerns. The market's reaction highlights the increasing sensitivity to policy shifts, with overnight-indexed swaps now indicating a 52% probability of multiple rate cuts this year.
READ MOREContrarian Traders Bet on Fed Rate Hikes Despite Market Consensus
A contrarian view is emerging among bond traders that the Federal Reserve might raise rates in 2025 rather than cut them, with options markets showing a 25% probability of a rate hike by year-end. This contrarian position, which emerged after a strong January jobs report, has maintained momentum even after favorable inflation data seemed to reinforce the Fed's rate-cutting stance. Options markets now show approximately 25% odds of a rate hike by year-end, down slightly from 30% before recent CPI data. The unconventional bet is largely tied to expectations about incoming President Trump's policies, particularly potential tariffs and immigration restrictions that could drive inflation higher. Former New York Fed economist Phil Suttle notably predicts a September rate hike, while Vanguard's global head of rates Roger Hallam suggests substantial inflation surprises could shift market expectations toward rate increases. This stands in stark contrast to the mainstream view, which has priced in at least one quarter-point cut and a 50% chance of a second reduction. The divergence highlights the market's growing uncertainty about the Fed's path, especially given historical precedents of quick policy reversals, such as the 1998-1999 period when the Fed shifted from crisis-driven cuts to inflation-fighting hikes within months.
READ MOREBond Markets Rally as Trump Delays Expected Tariff Announcements
Treasury yields fell significantly Tuesday as markets reopened after the holiday weekend, reacting to President Trump's unexpected delay in implementing promised import tariffs. The 10-year yield dropped 5.6 basis points to 4.574%, while 30-year yields fell 5.9 basis points to 4.801%. While Trump later mentioned possible tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting in February, analysts remain divided on the timing and scope of future trade measures, with some still expecting significant tariffs later in the year.
READ MOREChina Holds Rates Steady as Yuan Pressure Constrains Policy Options
China has maintained its benchmark lending rates for the third straight month, keeping the one-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%. Despite plans for "appropriately loose" monetary policy in 2025, the weakening yuan is limiting Beijing's ability to implement stimulus measures. This cautious approach comes even as the country achieved its 5% growth target last year, with markets now reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts.
READ MORETrump's Currency Manipulation Warning Rattles Global Markets
Global markets were jolted on Trump's first day in office by a new administration fact sheet calling for federal agencies to address currency manipulation by other nations. The move comes at a time when the dollar's strength, driven by high US interest rates and robust growth, already dominates the $7.5 trillion daily foreign exchange market. This policy shift could particularly impact nations on the Treasury's existing monitoring list, including major economies like Japan, China, Germany, and Singapore. Westpac's head of foreign exchange strategy, Richard Franulovich, describes the warning as "ground-breaking," suggesting that the Trump administration and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent may apply broader criteria in labeling currency manipulators. The policy echoes earlier Trump administration plans to prevent nations from moving away from dollar usage, potentially through export controls, manipulation charges, and levies. Analysts warn this could trigger increased market volatility and force countries to allow currency appreciation against the dollar, with China facing particular vulnerability given existing trade tensions with the US.
READ MOREDeadly Clash at Ghana Gold Mine Leaves Seven Dead, Sparks Investigation
A fatal confrontation at AngloGold Ashanti's Obuasi gold mine in Ghana has resulted in multiple deaths and sparked controversy over the circumstances. According to the military, seven illegal miners were killed during a shootout after approximately 60 people carrying locally manufactured rifles breached the mine's security fence and fired on a military patrol. However, Kofi Adams, local chairman of the Ghana National Association of Small Scale Miners, presents a starkly different account, claiming nine unarmed individuals were killed and fourteen severely injured, noting such deadly force was unprecedented at the site. The incident has drawn immediate attention from Ghana's highest office, with President John Dramani Mahama ordering an investigation into what he termed a "tragic" event. The government has instructed AngloGold Ashanti, whose Obuasi and Iduapriem mines produced over 490,000 ounces of gold last year, to assume responsibility for all medical and burial costs. This incident highlights the ongoing tensions between large-scale mining operations and local small-scale miners in Ghana, one of Africa's leading gold producers.
READ MOREInside Zurich's Secret Gold Vaults: Where the Ultra-Wealthy Store Their Billions
Deep beneath Zurich airport lies a testament to gold's enduring allure: a 350-square-meter high-security vault where the ultra-wealthy store their precious metals. Managed by Egon von Greyerz, these facilities require minimum investments of $400,000 for Zurich or Singapore storage, and $5 million for their Swiss Alps location. This exclusive world of gold storage reflects a broader trend, as the Royal Mint reports a 153% increase in bullion sales amid growing global uncertainties. The movement toward gold spans far beyond the ultra-wealthy, though. Von Greyerz, a former Dixons finance director turned gold advocate, argues that gold represents the ultimate form of wealth preservation in an era of unprecedented global debt ($315 trillion) and geopolitical instability. His clients, spanning 90 countries, typically invest 20-50% of their wealth in gold, far exceeding the global average of 0.5%. The precious metal's value has risen over 15,000% since 1970, and with mining reserves potentially running out by 2050, combined with increasing industrial applications and its traditional role as a safe haven, gold's appeal shows no signs of diminishing. Even for smaller investors, von Greyerz advocates buying gold at any affordable level, noting particular advantages like tax-free gains on British gold coins.
READ MOREBridgewater's Dalio Warns of UK 'Debt Death Spiral' Risk
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the UK faces a potential "debt death spiral" as rising borrowing costs force the country to take on more debt to service existing obligations. Speaking to the Financial Times, Dalio highlighted the troubling combination of rising gilt yields, which touched 4.90% (highest since 2008), alongside a weakening pound and deteriorating economic data - a pattern that typically shouldn't occur when monetary policy is expected to ease. The billionaire hedge fund manager points to a fundamental supply-demand problem in the gilt market, suggesting investors are becoming increasingly wary of absorbing UK government debt. This market behavior is particularly concerning as it comes amid cooling inflation and growth data, implying the market's reaction is driven by debt sustainability concerns rather than economic strength. Dalio extends his warning to the US market, noting similar signs of strain in the Treasury market and urging the incoming Trump administration to prioritize addressing the American debt burden. The parallel challenges in both markets underscore growing global concerns about government debt sustainability in major economies.
READ MOREGuggenheim Sees Four Fed Rate Cuts in 2025, Bucking Market Consensus
Guggenheim Partners' Chief Investment Officer Anne Walsh has laid out a bold forecast for 2025, predicting quarterly Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations that have recently scaled back to just one or two cuts. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Walsh expressed a more optimistic view on Trump's trade policies, suggesting tariffs will likely average less than 10% and be more targeted than markets fear, particularly while the dollar maintains its reserve currency status. On the investment front, Walsh sees opportunities in both bonds and equities, highlighting that the bond market's recent range-bound trading creates interesting possibilities. She identifies 5% yields on 10-year Treasury bonds as an "extreme" buying opportunity and expects tight yield spreads to benefit U.S. equities. Walsh projects 8-10% returns for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, driven by artificial intelligence, energy sector developments, and manufacturing reshoring, while cautioning that political-policy tensions could create significant market volatility throughout the year.
READ MOREGold Nears $2,725 as Trump Signals Tariffs on Mexico, Canada
Gold prices are advancing toward their highest levels since early November, trading near $2,725 an ounce, as markets react to President Trump's announcement of planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While China has been temporarily spared from immediate tariffs, Trump's indication that he's still considering universal import tariffs has kept market tension high. The precious metal's rise reflects both immediate trade war concerns and broader uncertainties about the new administration's policies. The market response has been particularly notable in silver, which briefly spiked 1.2% to $31.525 an ounce, given Mexico's position as the leading global producer. Beyond immediate trade concerns, gold's momentum is being supported by multiple factors, including potential inflation pressures from Trump's domestic agenda of tax cuts and increased spending, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying. Analysts like Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva suggest the combination of tariff implementation and resulting risk aversion in equity markets could further fuel gold's bullish momentum, despite potential headwinds from higher interest rates.
READ MOREMining Giants Rio Tinto, Glencore Explore Historic $160 Billion Merger
Rio Tinto and Glencore have explored what could become mining's largest-ever merger, with preliminary talks held in late 2024 to combine their $104 billion and $56 billion market capitalizations respectively. The potential deal reflects the mining industry's intense focus on copper acquisition, with both companies owning premier assets including the coveted Collahuasi mine in Chile. However, significant obstacles exist: Rio Tinto's complete exit from coal contrasts with Glencore's position as the world's biggest coal shipper, their corporate cultures differ dramatically, and Rio's CEO Jakob Stausholm has expressed skepticism about mega-deals. The talks emerge amid a wave of industry consolidation attempts, including Glencore's recent Teck Resources coal unit acquisition and BHP's unsuccessful $49 billion bid for Anglo American.
READ MOREJunk Debt Market Races Against Time as Trump's Tariff Threat Looms
The impending Trump presidency has triggered widespread anxiety in the junk debt market, particularly in Europe, where companies are racing to secure financing ahead of potential tariff implementations. The market has seen its busiest start since 2017, with 19 out of 28 loan tranches being repricings as companies seek to lock in favorable terms. Lenders are conducting extensive due diligence, exemplified by Hunter Douglas's two-hour creditor call that focused heavily on tariff impact assessments. Investment managers are already adjusting their portfolios, shifting away from vulnerable sectors like automobiles and chemicals toward domestic industries less exposed to trade tensions. While European high-yield borrowers are expected to face the initial impact, there are broader concerns about potential inflationary pressures and their effect on Federal Reserve policy, which could impact the entire credit market.
READ MOREOil Extends 4-Week Win Streak as Russian Sanctions Reshape Trade
Oil futures are poised for their fourth straight week of gains, with WTI crude targeting a 2.6% weekly increase despite a minor 0.2% dip to $78.56 per barrel on Friday. The recent rally has been driven by the Biden administration's broader sanctions against Russia's energy sector, which targeted additional producers, over 180 vessels, and oilfield-service providers. These measures have prompted major buyers like India and China to seek alternative suppliers, while additional sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet could impact up to 500,000 barrels of daily crude supply. Market attention is now shifting to President-elect Trump's upcoming energy policies, with analysts suggesting he might use sanctions as a negotiating tool rather than risk triggering higher oil prices.
READ MOREEight States Race for Bitcoin Reserves as Trump's Crypto Vision Takes Shape
The cryptocurrency landscape is undergoing major shifts as Bitcoin's price fluctuates dramatically, moving from $90K to $101K within a week. At the state level, a remarkable push for Bitcoin adoption is underway, with eight states - Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Ohio, Alabama, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota - advancing legislation to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves. This movement coincides with broader national initiatives, including Trump's proposed federal Bitcoin stockpile plan, which has gained substantial industry support. Adding to the dynamics, Senator Cynthia Lummis has launched an investigation into alleged document tampering at the FDIC regarding its digital asset activities, particularly concerning Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank. The industry's optimism is culminating in a lavish Crypto Ball in Washington D.C., sponsored by major players like Coinbase and featuring exclusive access to Trump, highlighting the growing intersection of cryptocurrency and politics.
READ MOREWall Street Giants Launch Fresh Bid to Overhaul Capital Rules Under Trump
Wall Street banks are launching an ambitious campaign to reshape capital regulations, emboldened by Trump's pending return to the White House and their recent victory in halving proposed Basel capital requirements. Leading institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are targeting multiple regulatory reforms, including reducing the capital surcharge for global banks and restructuring the Federal Reserve's stress testing framework. Banking executives argue that the current nearly $1 trillion combined capital requirement is excessive, pointing to their stability during the COVID-19 pandemic and their role in stabilizing regional banks during the 2023 crisis as evidence of their financial strength. While banks achieved some regulatory relief during Trump's first term, they view the upcoming administration change, including an earlier-than-expected appointment of a new Federal Reserve regulatory chief, as a unique opportunity for more comprehensive reform.
READ MOREGlobal Mining Outlook: Stability Emerges Despite Regional Challenges
Key developments in the basic materials sector show varying performance across companies and regions. Orla Mining reported disappointing Q4 gold production of 26,500 ounces, falling 15% below expectations due to 4,100 ounces remaining in refined inventory. Meanwhile, Antofagasta's 2025 capital expenditure guidance of $3.9 billion exceeded analyst expectations by 11%. Rio Tinto delivered strong copper production, particularly at Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi mines, while reporting steady iron-ore output despite an increasing mix of lower-quality SP10 ore. The company notes global economic resilience with moderating inflation, though challenges persist from geopolitical tensions, labor shortages, and China's property market crisis, even as the U.S. economy maintains stable performance.
READ MORETrump Plans Triple Threat: New Oil Sanctions Target Iran, Russia, Venezuela
The incoming Trump administration is developing comprehensive sanctions targeting the oil sectors of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, focusing on three persistent diplomatic challenges facing the United States. The measures aim to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine, address concerns about Iran's nuclear program, and respond to Venezuela's democratic backsliding. However, sanctioning these major oil producers presents significant challenges for global markets, particularly following recent oil price increases triggered by Biden's sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Russia's financial strain is evident, with its National Wellbeing Fund's liquid assets dropping 24% to 3.8 trillion rubles in 2024, largely due to war-related expenditures. The news coincides with BP's announcement of significant job cuts and restructuring efforts under CEO Murray Auchincloss.
READ MOREGold Up Over $2,740 in Third Straight Winning Session
Gold futures surged 1.25% to $2,746.40 on Thursday, marking their third consecutive daily gain and the third-highest close in history. The precious metal has rallied in seven of the past eight sessions, climbing 4.46% year-to-date, supported by shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations and standing just 1.51% below its all-time high of $2,788.50.
READ MOREStrong December Retail Data Challenges Fed's Rate Cut Timeline
December's retail sales data painted a picture of resilient U.S. consumer spending, with a 0.4% overall increase and a notable 0.7% jump in core retail sales. The strength was broad-based, with significant gains in auto dealerships (0.7%), furniture stores (2.3%), and sporting goods retailers (2.6%). This robust performance, combined with December's strong employment figures showing a 4.1% unemployment rate, has prompted economists to revise their Q4 GDP growth estimates upward to nearly match Q3's 3.1% pace. The data suggests that wage growth continues to drive consumer spending, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's considerations for interest rate cuts in 2024.
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