Jim Pogoda, Senior Gold Trader, Gold Bullion International
SEP 4, 2019
Looking ahead
All markets will continue to focus on geopolitical events (especially Brexit news and US / UK - Iran tensions, Hong Kong protests), developments with the Trump Administration (especially on US-China trade, potential legal issues), oil prices, and will turn to this afternoon’s Fed Beige Book along with comments this afternoon from the Fed’s Evans followed by reports tomorrow on Germany’s Factory Orders and Construction PMI, US Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims, Markit Services PMI, Factory Orders, Durable Goods, and Oil Inventories for near term guidance.
In the news:
Private investors pile into gold: https://www.yourmoney.com/investing/private-investors-pile-into-gold/
Gold seen cracking $1600 – BNP: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/gold-to-top-1-600-as-fed-cuts-rates-four-more-times-bnp-says-1.1310692
No summer holiday for central bank demand: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2019/09/no-summer-holiday-central-bank-demand
Gold speculators trimmed their bets slightly this week: https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-speculators-trimmed-their-bullish-bets-slightly-this-week-200460625
Jeff Christian on gold’s bull run: http://www.cogencis.com/newssection/interview-us-president-is-golds-trump-card-says-cpm-group-head/
YTD Performance | 12/31/2018 | 9/4/2019 | Change | % Change | ||
Gold | 1282.5 | 1557 | 274.5 | 21.404% | ||
DX | 96.06 | 98.48 | 2.42 | 2.519% | ||
S&P | 2505 | 2931 | 426 | 17.006% | ||
JYN | 109.63 | 106.29 | -3.34 | -3.047% | ||
Euro | 1.1466 | 1.1026 | -0.044 | -3.837% | ||
US 10-year bond yield | 2.69% | 1.452% | -0.0123 | -45.942% | ||
Oil (WTI) | 45.45 | 56.45 | 11 | 24.202% |
Resistance levels:
$1591 – 4/7/13 high
$1600 – options
$1604 – 3/31/13 high
$1614 – 3/24/13 high
Support levels:
$1549 - $1550 –triple top - 8/26, 8/29, and 9/3 highs
$1547 – 8/28 high
$1545 – 8/27 high
$1535 – 8/13 high
$1533 – 8/30 high
$1532 – 8/28 low
$1527 – 8/27 low
$1527 - 28 – double top - 8/15 and 8/16 highs
$1525 – 8/26 low
$1525 – options
$1522 – up trendline from 8/1 $1400 low
$1519 – 9/2 low
$1517 – 8/30 low
$1513 – 8/19 high
$1510– 20-day moving average
$1508 – double top - 8/20 and 8/21 highs
$1504 – 8/22 high
$1500 – options
$1497 – 8/21 low
$1493-4 – 5 bottoms 8/14, 8/19, 8/20, 8/22, 8/23 lows
$1480 – 8/13 low
$1472 – 8/7 low
$1465 - 40-day moving average
$1457 – 8/6 low
$1456 – up trendline from 5/30 $1275 low
$1454 – 50-day moving average
$1450 – options
$1438 – 8/5 low