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Markets on Edge: Continuing Coverage of Regional Banking Crisis

GoldSilver Team 

To help you stay ahead of potential trouble in the markets, we're closely monitoring the commercial real estate sector, which is under stress from decreasing demand and soaring lending costs. Banks supporting the sector, including NYCB, are on the brink -- will it be an isolated event or a contagion that could infect the financial system? Here's the latest:

2:47pm ET | May 1, 2024

Stress Tests Shows Hundreds of U.S. Banks at Risk

Hundreds of small and regional banks in the U.S. are under financial stress, with 282 facing significant risks from commercial real estate loans and the effects of higher interest rates, according to a study by Klaros Group. The majority of those banks are smaller lenders with less than $10 billion in assets. Fitch Ratings' Christopher Wolfe and Klaros Group's Brian Graham emphasize that the risk is more about financial pressure than outright failures. (Original Source

10:31am ET | April 29, 2024

First Bank Failure of 2024: Republic Bank Shuts Down After $10B Collapse

US regulators have closed Republic Bank, marking 2024's first bank failure. The FDIC is safeguarding $10 billion, comprising $6 billion in assets and $4 billion in customer deposits, transferring them to Fulton Bank. Republic Bank’s 32 branches across New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York will resume operations under Fulton Bank this weekend or Monday, depending on regular branch hours. Customers can access funds through checks, ATMs, or debit cards. This transition follows significant bank failures in the previous year and comes amid ongoing concerns about the banking sector's stability due to its connections with the volatile commercial real estate market and US Treasuries. (Original Source)

4:28pm ET | April 19, 2024

Federal Reserve Reveals Over 1,800 Banks Accessed Emergency Funds Post SVB-Collapse

The Federal Reserve reported that 1,804 depository institutions, representing 20% of all eligible entities , access its emergency lending facility following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last March. According to a semi- annual Financial Stability Report, most of these institutions -- 95% in fact -- were smaller entities with assets under $10 billion, (Original Source

12:22pm ET | April 10, 2024

Barron's NYCB Is Losing Staff to Rivals

In a significant blow to New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), the bank has recently seen a notable exodus of talent, with two competitors poaching key private-bank teams responsible for managing billions in deposits. This development raises concerns about the effectiveness of NYCB's much-needed turnaround strategy, currently being orchestrated by an investment group led by ex-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. (Original Source)

4:15pm ET | April 3, 2024

NYCB Sued for Securities Law Violations

A class action securities lawsuit was filed against New York Community Bancorp, Inc. that seeks to recover losses of shareholders who were adversely affected by alleged securities fraud between March 1, 2023 and February 5, 2024. (Original Source)

4:11pm ET | Mar 25, 2024

NYCB and Meridian: A Partnership's Rise and Fall

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) and Meridian Capital Group once thrived together during New York's real estate boom, thanks to low interest rates. However, the landscape has dramatically changed due to rising interest rates and falling property valuations, significantly impacting both companies. NYCB's shares have plummeted by 65% this year, amidst revelations of loan issues and governance lapses, leading to a high turnover of CEOs. Meanwhile, Meridian faces scrutiny from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over allegations of falsifying loan application data, marking a challenging phase for the firms amidst a broader commercial real estate market downturn and regulatory investigations. (Original Source)

9:57am ET | Mar 20, 2024

New York Community Bank (NYCB) Ratings Bumped Up by Moody's

Following a substantial capital injection of $1.05 billion, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) has seen its credit rating upgraded by Moody's Investors Service. This financial boost is expected to strengthen NYCB's common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio to 10.2%, enhancing the bank's ability to cover credit losses, particularly within its commercial real estate portfolio, and to provide a much-needed liquidity source amidst falling deposits. (Original Source)

9:50am ET | Mar 19, 2024

Banks Are in Limbo... Here's Where Cracks May Appear Next

In the aftermath of the regional banking crisis in March 2023, the banking sector, especially smaller institutions, remains at risk. Despite the crisis seeming to recede, the fundamental issues, such as hundreds of billions in unrealized losses due to low-interest bonds and loans, persist. This is exacerbated by potential losses in commercial real estate. The Fed's decision not to cut rates has left many banks vulnerable, with 282 out of approximately 4,000 analyzed showing significant exposure to these risks. These banks may need to seek additional capital or consider mergers to survive the continuing challenges posed by the high-interest environment. (Original Source)

12:33pm ET | Mar 18, 2024

Raymond James Lowers NYCB Rating, Citing Increasing Credit Risks

New York Community Bancorp's (NYCB) stock was downgraded to underperform by Raymond James due to concerns over rising credit costs. Analyst Steve Moss adjusted the bank's rating from market perform and set a fair value estimate of $3 per share, which is below its recent closing price. This downgrade occurs despite NYCB's recent $1.05 billion capital infusion. Additional concerns arose from NYCB's latest financial disclosures, including the sale of consumer loans valued at $899 million and ongoing issues related to material weaknesses, hinting at potential further problems. (Original Source)

2:28pm ET | Mar 14, 2024

NYCB Reaps Gain From Sale of $1 Billion in Loans

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), recently buoyed by a capital boost from a consortium led by Steven Mnuchin, announced a notable recovery step. By offloading a consumer loan portfolio worth $899 million and a co-op loan, NYCB managed to secure a profit. Despite a $112 million charge-off linked to the co-op loan in its Q4 results, the sale generated a $26 million gain over its adjusted fair value. (Original Source)

9:37am ET | Mar 12, 2024

NYCB Secures $1 Billion Boost and Announces Strategic Revamp

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) successfully completed a significant $1 billion capital infusion agreement with an investor group, as announced last Monday. This move comes alongside plans for a one-for-three reverse stock split of its common stock, pending shareholder approval. The deal also brought a high-profile leadership change, with Joseph Otting, a former Comptroller of the Currency under the Trump administration, stepping in as NYCB's chief executive. This injection of capital and leadership change, including the involvement of notable figures like former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin among the investors, marks a strategic pivot for NYCB aimed at a turnaround. (Original Source)

1:42pm ET | Mar 11, 2024

A Year On: What NYCB Can Learn from Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse

New York Community Bank (NYCB) is facing significant challenges, as the anniversary of Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse prompts a reevaluation among investors. Steven Kelly from the Yale Program on Financial Stability discusses the contrasts and lessons from the 2023 banking crisis. Unlike the SVB situation, which was marked by panic, the current environment surrounding NYCB is less tumultuous. Kelly attributes the banking sector's fragilities to the rapid interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which caught the market off-guard. (Original Source)

9:25am ET | Mar 8, 2024

Powell: ‘There Will Be Bank Failures’ Caused by Commercial Real Estate Losses

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has sounded the alarm, warning of potential bank failures tied to the commercial real estate sector's downturn. As work habits shift more towards remote operations, the value of office and retail spaces has plummeted, placing banks with significant investments in these assets at risk. However, Powell reassures that the larger, systemically important banks, fortified since the 2008 crisis, are not the ones in jeopardy. This forecast highlights the evolving challenges in the financial landscape, particularly for institutions heavily invested in commercial real estate. (Original Source)

3:45pm ET | Mar 7, 2024

Bill Martin, Who Called SVB’s Collapse, Adds to His NYCB Short and Says It Will End Up a ‘Zombie Bank’

Bill Martin, known for predicting Silicon Valley Bank's 2023 downfall, has targeted New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) as his latest investment challenge. Despite NYCB raising $1 billion in fresh capital, potentially boosting confidence among some investors, Martin remains skeptical. His pessimism stems from a significant stock plunge following a poor earnings report, and subsequent further declines to a low of $1.70, even before the capital infusion led by Steven Mnuchin's firm revived it to $3.46. (Original Source)

10:52am ET | Mar 7, 2024

Steven Mnuchin Leads $1 Billion Attempt to Rescue NYCB

In a bold move to restore faith among investors, New York Community Bank (NYCB) unveiled a strategic revamp, including the appointment of a new CEO and a substantial $1 billion capital injection led by ex-Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. This pivot was initiated in response to a staggering 45% drop in the bank's stock value, triggered by revelations of NYCB's active search for equity investors. The involvement of high-profile financial veterans and the significant financial bolstering aim to stabilize the $114 billion institution and reassure stakeholders of its resilience and future growth prospects. (Original Source)

3:45pm ET | Mar 6, 2024

New York Community Bancorp Stock Halted After Big Plunge

New York Community Bancorp dropped as much as 32% on a report that the beleaguered regional bank is trying to raise equity capital to restore confidence. (Original Source)

12:15pm ET | Mar 6, 2024

NYCB Swelled Despite Warning Signs. Now It’s a Mess
Three years after the merger between New York Community Bancorp and Flagstar Bank, NYCB is a mess. Last week, the lender revealed major weaknesses in its ability to monitor loans for signs of trouble, and replaced its CEO. Investors are watching to see if the new boss will have to set aside even more money to cover potential problems, on top of a $552 million hit that shocked the market in January.

12:05pm ET | Mar 5, 2024

NYCB Stock Tumbles to Lowest Level Since 1996

New York Community Bank's (NYCB) shares plummeted 23% on Monday, falling to its lowest level since 1996. The regional lender said in a filing last week it had identified “material weakness” in the company’s controls, resulting in a $2.4 billion loss to shareholders last quarter. (Original Source)

3:55pm ET | Mar 1, 2024

Signs of Trouble at Regional Banks Reignite Sector Fears

As bank stocks tumbled on Friday, down over 26% for New York Community Bancorp, it was another reminder of the inherent instability of fiat currency institutions. This decline, on top of a string of bank failures over the past year, signals growing weaknesses in the fractional reserve banking system and the dollar itself. (Original Source)

11:20am ET | Mar 1, 2024

NYCB Flags Weaknesses in Loan Oversight and Names New CEO

Shares of the regional bank tumble after new disclosures revealed “material weaknesses” in how it tracks loan risks. The stock tumbled 20% at 10:24 a.m. in New York, extending this year’s slump to 63%. (Original Source)

1:05pm ET | Feb 26, 2024

10:03pm ET | Feb 20, 2024

NYCB Stock Rout Prompts US Bank Regulators To Conduct Health Check

U.S. banking regulators have initiated inquiries into the potential ripple effects across regional banks. Following NYCB's disappointing earnings report and dividend cut on January 31, officials from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, and state banking authorities engaged in discussions assessing the banks' liquidity, examining any shifts in deposit flows, and gauging customer concerns about the sector's stability.

3:18pm ET | Feb 15, 2024

Rising Tide of Risk: U.S. Banks Brace for Regulatory Storm Over Soaring Commercial Real Estate Loans

In late 2023, around two dozen U.S. banks were flagged for having commercial real estate loan exposures that exceeded regulatory comfort levels, prompting concerns of increased scrutiny from federal regulators. This situation, highlighted by a Bloomberg analysis, reflects the broader challenges in the commercial real estate market, exacerbated by high interest rates and shifts in work habits post-pandemic. As a result, banks face pressure to bolster reserves and manage risks associated with these loans, amidst a market that's becoming increasingly difficult to navigate due to uncertain property values and looming loan maturities. (Original Source)

9:29am ET | Feb 15, 2024

11:28am ET | Feb 14, 2024

Moody's Inquiries Stir Fresh Concerns Amid NYCB Fallout

Following the stock decline of New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) due to its real estate exposure, ratings agencies like Moody's initiated inquiries with various regional banks, sparking concerns across the sector. These checks, aimed at assessing the banks' exposure to similar risks and their preparedness for potential fallout, have heightened the industry's anxiety, still reeling from the previous year's banking crisis. Despite efforts by regional banks to strengthen their balance sheets and funding since last March, the sector faces persistent challenges, including pressure on earnings and vulnerabilities in commercial real estate, leading to increased scrutiny from ratings agencies and investors alike. (Original Source)

5:07p ET | Feb 13, 2024

Shares of NYCB Fall As Rate Hike Worries Increase CRE Exposure Risk

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) shares saw a nearly 4% decline following the release of January's inflation data, which heightened investor concerns over potential delays in interest rate cuts. This financial unease is particularly significant due to NYCB's substantial exposure to the stressed U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) sector. The reported 0.3% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, surpassing the economists' expectation of 0.2%, has intensified worries. Investors fear that elevated borrowing costs, coupled with low occupancy rates in office spaces, could further pressure lenders like NYCB, which are already facing risks of defaults from borrowers within the CRE sector. (Original Source)

12:24p ET | Feb 8, 2024

NYCB's Struggles Could Ignite Sector-Wide Crisis

Dave Mazza from Roundhill Investments warns of potential contagion risks within the financial sector due to the pressures facing New York Community Bank (NYCB), especially if investor patience wears thin. In this interview with Yahoo! Finance, he highlights concerns around the commercial real estate market and multifamily loans, suggesting that the issues with NYCB could reflect broader systemic stresses. Despite some banks rebounding, Mazza advises caution for investors in regional banks and suggests that the situation could lead to acquisitions by larger banks, while also impacting real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the overall health of the financial market. (Original Source)

4:53pm ET | Feb 7, 2024

NYCB Bounces Back Rising 6.7% To $4.48 at the Closing Bell

In a rollercoaster day of trading, New York Community Bancorp's stock made a comeback of sorts, climbing 6.7% -- but shares are still at their lowest level since 1997. This turnaround was fueled by the bank's new executive chairman, Alessandro DiNello, who attempted to cast a ray of hope, claiming the bank's liquidity and deposit base remain solid despite the tumultuous market response. Investor faith wavers as the bank, still reeling from a $252 million loss and a surprise dividend cut, grapples with a risky concentration in the faltering commercial real estate market. Amid the Federal Reserve's heightened scrutiny and the specter of a regional banking crisis, NYCB's strategy to navigate these choppy waters remains under intense scrutiny. With lawsuits piling up and regulatory eyes closely watching, the path ahead for NYCB is fraught with challenges, raising concerns over its ability to weather the storm.

12:49pm ET | Feb 7, 2024

Commercial Real Estate Contagion Spreading: "Greatest Real Estate Crisis Since 2008"?

Bloomberg reports the US commercial real estate market's difficulties have now spread to Europe. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG in Germany has become the latest bank to face challenges, with its bonds dropping due to its significant exposure to the troubled real estate sector. The bank has had to unexpectedly increase its financial cushions because of the “persistent weakness of the real estate markets.” It described the current turmoil as the “greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.”

The situation is made even worse by rising interest rates, which have lowered property values worldwide. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledges the concern but believes the issue is manageable, even as the US office market suffers from decreased values post-pandemic, with predictions of further declines ahead. (Original source)

10:21am ET | Feb 7, 2024

Fed's Powell Calls Regional Bank Crisis "Manageable Problem"

10:10am ET | Feb 7, 2024

NYCB's Reassurance on Liquidity Unconvincing as Stock Continues Fall, Down -10% Today

Despite New York Community Bancorp's attempts to reassure investors with news of increased deposits and ample liquidity, its stock persisted in its downward trajectory, following a series of rating downgrades by Moody's, Fitch, and a notable stock downgrade from J.P. Morgan. As MarketWatch reports, analysts highlight the bank's "high risk profile" and recent executive departures as key factors exacerbating investor concerns. Citi analyst Keith Horowitz points out that despite the bank's strong liquidity position, the shift in its deposit strategy and the junk status of its debt could further pressure the stock and complicate debt issuance efforts. (Original Source)

Why is this important for investors like you? NYCB isn’t a small-scale operation. It's one of the largest regional banks in America. NYCB has:

  • 420 branches nationwide
  • Ranking as the 7th largest originator of residential mortgage loans,
  • The 5th largest sub-servicer of mortgage loans across the country.

NYCB has roughly $84 billion in loans with a large portion allocated to multifamily housing. Out of this, $30 billion is in buildings where rents are controlled by rules to keep them affordable. Unfortunately, some new regulations have made these buildings less valuable, which is bad news for the bank.  

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, “we are monitoring current banking stresses very carefully... Commercial real estate is an area that we’ve long been aware could create financial stability risks or losses in the banking system...”  

There is $2.2 trillion in commercial real estate debt coming due by 2027. These debts now face refinancing at significantly higher rates. How much of that debt is going to be defaulted on?

Jerome Powell seems to believe commercial real estate’s impact on banking has just begun, saying it’s a “problem we’ll be working on for years...”

8:15pm ET | Feb 6, 2024

WSJ: Moody’s Cuts NYCB to Junk, Extending Sharp Decline in Shares

Moody's Investors Service has downgraded New York Community Bancorp’s credit rating to junk status, marking another setback for the already struggling lender. The downgrade to Ba2 from Baa3 is attributed to "financial, risk-management, and governance challenges," following a surprising quarterly loss and dividend cut by NYCB. This announcement exacerbated a sharp decline in the bank's stock value, which saw its lowest close since 1997 and a 15% drop after hours. NYCB's acquisition of Signature Bank and subsequent losses in its commercial real estate portfolio have put it under intense scrutiny, especially as it now exceeds $100 billion in assets, inviting stricter regulatory and capital requirements. Amidst a broader crisis of confidence in the banking sector, NYCB asserts that its deposits remain stable, despite recent high-profile executive departures and a projected decrease in net interest income for 2024. (Original source

3:24pm ET | Feb 6, 2024

Shares of NYCB, One of Nation's Largest Regional Banks, Collapses -25%

4:02pm ET | Feb 2, 2024

The Next Banking Crisis?

GoldSilver's own Alan Hibbard discusses New York Community Bancorp's falling stock price and it's move to slash its dividend by 70%. (Original Source)

10:12am ET | Feb 2, 2024

Surprise Losses Hit Regional Banks

Last year, about this same time, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank imploded sending shockwaves through the financial sector. Now, the would-be savor of Signature Bank, New York Community Bancorp that acquired its assets, is reporting massive losses on its commercial property loans. Its stock plummeted earlier this week...

NYCB Shares Drop -44%, Taking Others With It,  Reminiscent of Last Year’s Regional Bank Collapse

And NYCB is not alone… banks in the US, Asia, and Europe are all facing mounting losses. It appears we’re in the early innings of this story. In fact, billionaire Barry Sternlicht sees more than $1 trillion in losses coming in the U.S. commercial property sector that is under pressure from soaring borrowing costs (persistently high interest rates) and plunging prices (slumping demand for offices).

For those of us with portfolios to protect and financial plans, now is the time to shore up our savings against any potential crisis that could be coming. Particularly in a tumultuous election year…

You Need Portfolio Insurance

And we’re not talking about FDIC insurance. You need something banks can’t touch... something outside the walls of our volatile financial system... something that has been proven to help preserve and grow your wealth through good times and bad. Throughout history, holding physical gold bullion has acted as one of the best forms of insurance for an investor's portfolio against unforeseen events. That’s because gold is insurance in its purest form. Gold doesn’t get its value from the government. It’s an asset you can see and touch that’s acted as a store of value all over the world for thousands of years.

Just like insurance, when it comes to gold, a little goes a long way. It doesn’t take much gold in your portfolio to hedge against what’s happening in the rest of the market. You don’t need to drastically change your investment strategy. BUT you do need to take responsibility for your portfolio because no one else will. If you’re not holding precious metals like gold and silver, you’re probably uninsured. That never ends well. Once you hedge your portfolio with precious metals, you’re golden.

What are you waiting for? Buy gold (and/or silver).

9:31am ET | Jan 25, 2024

The Looming Disaster in Commercial Real Estate Explained - Mike Maloney

Explore the unfolding crisis in commercial real estate with Mike Maloney and Todd Sachs as they discuss the challenges faced by property owners, the risks associated with refinancing in a changing market, and the potential pitfalls of government interventions. Learn about the impact of rising interest rates, the distinction between recourse and non-recourse borrowers, and the controversial plan to convert office buildings into residential spaces. Gain insights into the complexities of the current real estate landscape and the potential consequences for both investors and the broader economy. (Original Source)