Trying to accurately predict the price of gold can often feel like trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
The ever-changing global factors make precision challenging, even for seasoned experts. However, delving into gold price predictions has its merits. It's an exercise that not only reaffirms investment choices but also highlights overlooked influences and encourages the reassessment of financial expectations.
Acknowledging the speculative nature of these forecasts, we're embarking on an insightful journey into the potential future of gold for 2024 and beyond. Our adventure begins with insights from top market analysts, dives into the key factors poised to shape gold's value.
Gold had a strong 2023, defying expectations amid a high interest rate environment. As we look forward to 2024, we explore the economic scenarios most likely to impact the price of gold.
On December 30, 2022, gold closed the year at $1,819.70 per ounce. Flash forward to one year later, and gold closed 2023 at $2,062.40.
That’s a gain of 13.3% in a single year.
With gold currently pushing to new record highs, it’s an extremely exciting time for gold investors.
Predicting the future of gold prices is never easy, but to offer some insights into what 2024 might hold, we've compiled an array of gold price forecasts, outlooks, and predictions from renowned banks, industry experts, and financial analysts.
Let’s take a look.
| 2024 Gold Price Prediction
|Bank of America
|$2,400 by end of 2024
|$2,200 by end of 2024
|$2,133 by end of 2024
|$1,900 by end of 2024
|$2,400 by end of 2024
|$2,100 by end of 2024
|$2,100 - 2,200 by end of 2024
|Ronald Stoeferle, Incrementum AG
|$2,500 by end of 2024
|Zach Scheidt, Rich Retirement Letter
| $3,000 by end of 2024
|Juerg Kiener, Swiss Asia Capital
|$2,500 - 4,000 by end of 2024
|$5,000 by end of 2024
Bank of America
In Bank of America’s 2024 “Metals and Mining Outlook”, the author shares that strategists with BofA think that if the Fed cuts rates before the second quarter, “gold could finish 2024 at $2,400 per ounce.”
“We think that a Fed easing policy will be quite supportive for gold. We think there's a strong negative relationship between gold and real rates so that decline in real rates should push prices higher... and we think we are looking for $2,200 by the end of next year...” - Joni Teves, UBS Bank
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 2024 average gold price of $2,133 per ounce, citing its role as a safe-haven asset amid rising uncertainties like banking stress and a probable US recession, fueling market fear.
World Bank Group
Gold prices are expected to average $1,900 per troy ounce in 2024—6 percent higher than in 2023, before retreating in 2025 as inflation and recession fears fade.
Edward Morse, MD & Global Hd, believes that gold prices could go up to $2,400 an ounce. Morse said, “We certainly think it will go to $2,400 an ounce. Our probability on that is fairly high. We remain bullish on gold. But we have to remind investors that this is a choppy road, and they need patience.”
“We expect gold prices to hit fresh highs next year and to average $2,100/z in 4Q, with a 2024 average of $2,031/oz on the assumption that the Fed starts cutting rates in the second quarter of next year, the dollar weakens, safe-haven demand continues amid global economic uncertainty and central bank buying remains at high levels.”
“We believe gold could add to its positive price momentum in 2024 as its recent headwinds appear poised to reverse and become tailwinds in 2024.” Prediction: $2,100 - 2,200 by end of 2024
Ronald Stoeferle, Incrementum AG
“If the forecast is allowed to continue until the end of the last phase of the Incrementum Recession Phase Model, the final result is a gold price of just under USD 2,500 at the end of 2024.”
Zach Scheidt, Rich Retirement Letter
“In November, gold closed the month above $2,000 an ounce for the first time ever. Naturally, gold surpassing this psychologically important milestone will attract attention from mainstream investors and financial media. And speaking from a more technical level, this breakthrough finally clears the way for gold to soar to $3,000 an ounce in 2024.”
Juerg Kiener, Swiss Asia Capital
“Gold prices could surge to $4,000 per ounce in 2023 as interest rate hikes and recession fears keep markets volatile. The price of the precious metal could reach between $2,500 and $4,000 sometime next year...”
“Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000 silver at $500 and Bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in US dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & Silver Gods money. Bitcoin people’s $. Take care.”
Gold's performance is particularly noteworthy given the headwinds faced by gold in a climate of rapidly increasing real interest rates. This year, the Federal Reserve rose interest rates to the highest levels we’ve seen in more than 20 years.13
Typically, gold struggles during periods of rising interest rates, as it's a non-yielding asset and becomes less attractive when cash-in-the-bank is getting 5% interest.
However, despite 2023 witnessing the sharpest increase in real interest rates since 1950, primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve, gold remarkably bucked this trend, highlighting its growing appeal in today’s financial landscape.
Gold – A Safe Haven During Crisis
Historically, gold has often been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical turmoil. This is due to its perceived value as a stable store of wealth, which becomes particularly appealing during uncertainty. Here are a few notable instances where geopolitical events have influenced gold prices:
It's important to note that each situation is unique, and various other factors can also influence gold prices. But history shows that when uncertainty breaks out, people look for safety. And that’s exactly what gold offers.
Hopes of Lower Interest Rates
Gold and interest rates typically share an inverse relationship. When interest rates climb, fixed-income assets like bonds offer higher yields, making them more attractive to investors.
Since gold doesn’t generate any yield, it is considered less appealing when interest rates are high. Investors often reallocate their investments from non-yielding gold to these higher-yielding options as interest rates rise.
In a December 2023 press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve expects to begin cutting interest rates in 2024.14
If rates are indeed lowered, this could bode well for gold. Lower interest rates generally mean reduced yields on bonds and other fixed-income assets, making gold more appealing by comparison. As investors seek out assets that retain or increase their value in a lower interest rate environment, gold could become a favored choice, potentially driving up its price.
A Recession is Still a Coinflip in 2024
In 2022, the 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted, which has typically been one of the more reliable recession indicators. This led many to go into 2023, expecting a recession that never came.
But as of Dec. 4, 2023, the New York Fed's recession probability model suggests that we have a 51.8% chance of a U.S. recession sometime in the next 12 months.
Gold has historically risen during recessions. During these times, gold has rallied for double-digit gains extremely quickly.
De-Dollarization – BRICS Challenges Dollar Dominance
Recent years have seen a significant shift towards de-dollarization, with the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – leading the charge to challenge the U.S. dollar's long-standing global dominance. Their aim is to disrupt the U.S. dollar's supremacy and the established Swift international payment system. This movement has gained momentum, with over 30 countries expressing interest in joining the BRICS alliance.
In a notable expansion, the BRICS group is set to welcome new members in 2024, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt. This expansion reflects a growing interest in establishing an alternative reserve currency, backed by a combination of these nations' currencies. This potential new currency aims to provide economic independence for these countries and pose a competitive alternative to the current international financial system.
The U.S. Dollar's role is significant, being involved in approximately 90% of all currency trading and nearly 100% of oil trading. However, the growing BRICS alliance and its move towards a new currency system signal a changing landscape.
What was once considered a far-fetched idea – reducing reliance on the U.S. Dollar or creating a viable alternative – now appears increasingly plausible.
Central Bank Demand Continues to Grow
Central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves in 2023, purchasing approximately 800 tons in the first three quarters.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), that's a 14% rise from the same period last year and a record for any nine-month span.
Last year, central banks bought a record 1,136 tons, driven by a shift to safer assets amid high inflation. This gold buying trend marked the thirteenth consecutive year of net gold purchases and the highest annual demand since 1950.
Gold Price Predictions for Next 5 Years (and Beyond)
The current landscape presents several catalysts that could significantly boost gold's value in both the short term (one year) and long term (two to five years), regardless of whether all these factors fully materialize.
That’s one of the biggest advantages of gold ownership. The price of gold doesn’t depend on all of these factors lining up. Anything that increases uncertainty on the part of investors can contribute to gold’s rise.
Given the multitude of risks currently surrounding the global economy, gold stands out as a potential safe haven for investors seeking stability amidst these uncertainties. This versatility and resilience make gold an attractive asset in times of both economic volatility and geopolitical instability.
As GoldSilver Founder Mike Maloney points out, the only way he’ll be wrong about gold (and silver) is if they stop printing, which isn’t likely to happen anytime soon.
Austerity is completely off the radar in the world we live in right now. This is a built-in catalyst for higher gold prices.
Recently, Mike Maloney released an analysis of the possibility of gold hitting $5,000 an ounce in 2024.